Welcome to Market Insights by innov8.ag. Today's update is for the week of February 23rd, 2026 — here's what's moving in blueberry markets.
Let's start with the urgent events that need your immediate attention this week. Frost hit Central Florida and Southeast Georgia, both regions currently in bud break stage. Looking at the 7-day forecast, we're seeing continued frost risk in Central Florida and Southeast Georgia, still at bud break, plus Bladen County North Carolina while dormant. We're also tracking chill deficits in Mexico — Jalisco at just 1% accumulation and San Quintín at 10%. Finally, rain damage has occurred in Peru's La Libertad Trujillo region and Lambayeque Olmos region.
Now let's look at growing degree days, or GDD accumulation across key regions. Central Florida picked up 66 GDD this week but remains 6 days behind the 5-year historical average — meaning GDD accumulation is trailing what we've typically seen at this point in the season, which signals a later harvest window. Southeast Georgia added 64 GDD and is tracking on schedule with historical averages. Bladen County North Carolina accumulated 44 GDD this week but sits 7 days behind average. Meanwhile, Bakersfield California gained 18 GDD and is running 6 days ahead of average.
Our top regional movers by market impact show some significant positioning shifts. Watsonville California leads at 26 days ahead of average, representing 18 million pounds of fresh production — that's 5% of total domestic supply. Bladen County North Carolina trails by 7 days behind average with 40 million pounds fresh, accounting for 10% of domestic volume. Central Florida sits 6 days behind with 22 million pounds fresh at 6% of domestic supply. Bakersfield California tracks 6 days ahead with 20 million pounds fresh representing 5% of domestic volume. Corning California is just 1 day ahead of average with 14 million pounds fresh at 4% of domestic supply.
For growers in these regions, this trajectory signals you may need to review labor crew timing. Your harvest window may need to shift, so coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates accordingly.
Let's examine our Overlap Pressure Index, or OPI. This metric estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries hit the market simultaneously across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest at once, supply gluts compress FOB pricing and growers become price-takers. For context, the 2023 cherry season saw roughly 70% of US volume landing in a single month, which collapsed FOB prices and left approximately 35% of the crop unharvested.
Currently, supply overlap is trending at historical average levels, putting our risk at medium. The current peak OPI signals 365 million pounds in week 26, which matches our historical peak of 365 million pounds. The peak window spans weeks 17 through 35, covering April through September. Growers should monitor this weekly — if OPI continues climbing, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before we hit that peak window.
On the import front, Peru, Mexico, and Chile are currently supplying the US fresh market, maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of the domestic season.
Turning to frost impact — we've had 2 regions hit by frost this season. Central Florida experienced 6 frost days during bud break from January 27th through February 3rd, with lows reaching 22 degrees Fahrenheit. This region represents 5.6% of domestic fresh production. Southeast Georgia saw extreme frost while dormant, hitting 19 degrees on January 15th — this region accounts for 21.8% of domestic fresh volume.
If you've been affected, assess bloom and bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. For those carrying crop insurance under APH or WFRP programs, notify your agent within 72 hours and do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Looking at the 7-day forecast, we have continued frost watch conditions. Central Florida faces 1 frost day at moderate risk while in bud break. Southeast Georgia shows 1 frost day at moderate risk, also at bud break. Bladen County North Carolina is tracking 2 frost days at high risk while dormant. Same action applies — assess damage within 48 hours, document with photos, and notify insurance agents promptly if you carry coverage.
For chill risk, we're tracking insufficient accumulation in Mexico regions. Jalisco Mexico sits at just 1% chill accumulation with 0% fresh production impact, while San Quintín Mexico shows 10% accumulation, also with 0% fresh production impact. Dormancy has ended, which means the chill deficit is locked in for this season. This low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set, so expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
We've also seen rain impact in 2 regions. Lambayeque Olmos Peru received 48 millimeters — that's 2 inches — on February 22nd while at ripening stage. This represents 0% of domestic fresh production. La Libertad Trujillo Peru had 2 rain days during ripening from January 15th through 16th, totaling 14 millimeters or 1 inch, with peak daily rainfall of 9 millimeters. This also represents 0% of domestic fresh impact. For any growers dealing with rain conditions, harvest ripe fruit immediately before the next rain event. Rain splitting typically causes 300 to 500 dollars per acre in losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.
And before we wrap up — Why don't blueberries ever get lonely? Because they always travel in bunches!
In closing, we used AI tooling to create this brief — and using AI tools is a lot like farming! The best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. But we're building these insights in the open, so if something sounds off, let us know. Visit innov8.ag to share your feedback, or forward this update to a colleague who could use it. This brief for informational purposes only — not financial or agronomic advice — and is copyright innov8.ag. Signing off with Market Insights — We'll see you next week.