Welcome to Market Insights by innov8.ag. Today's update is for the week of February 23rd, 2026 — here's what's moving in cherry markets.
First, the key developments this week: frost hit O'Higgins Chile during their ripening phase, and we're tracking significant chill deficits in California — Stockton at 80% deficit and Hollister at 46%.
Looking at growing degree days, or GDD accumulation this week, Stockton California picked up 18 GDD, putting them 3 days ahead of the 5-year historical average — meaning GDD accumulation is outpacing what we've typically seen at this point in the season, which signals an earlier harvest window. Hollister California gained 22 GDD this week and is now tracking 8 days ahead of average.
Our top movers by market impact show Hollister California leading at 8 days ahead, representing 72 million pounds fresh and 12% of domestic supply. Stockton California follows at 3 days ahead with 108 million pounds fresh — that's 19% of domestic production. For growers in these regions, you may want to review labor crew timing since your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
The Overlap Pressure Index, or OPI, estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing and growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. For context, the 2023 cherry season saw roughly 70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving about 35% of the crop unharvested.
Current supply overlap is trending 7% below historical average, putting our risk level at low. The current peak OPI signals 557 million pounds in week 22, compared to the historical peak of 597 million pounds. The peak window is tracking for weeks 22 through 30 — that's June through July.
Chile is currently supplying the US fresh market, maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of our domestic season. This is positive for the supply chain, ensuring consistent cherry availability on retail shelves.
For FOB reference, historical averages from USDA AMS show approximately $47 per 20-pound carton during peak weeks 22 through 30. In 2023 we saw roughly $45, and 2024 came in around $47.
On the frost front, we've had one region hit by frost this season. O'Higgins Chile experienced extreme frost at bud break — 21 degrees Fahrenheit on August 22nd. This represents essentially zero percent of domestic fresh supply. For any growers who may face frost conditions, assess bloom and bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance — APH or WFRP — notify your agent within 72 hours and do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Turning to chill risk, we're tracking insufficient chill accumulation in Stockton California at 80% deficit — that's 19% of fresh supply — and Hollister California at 46% deficit, representing 12% of fresh supply. This may delay or reduce bloom quality. Dormancy has ended, so the chill deficit is locked in for this season. Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out, so growers should budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
And before we wrap up — Why don't cherries ever feel lonely? Because they always come in pairs!
In closing, we used AI tooling to create this brief — and using AI tools is a lot like farming! The best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. But we're building these insights in the open, so if something sounds off, let us know. Visit innov8.ag to share your feedback, or forward this update to a colleague who could use it. This brief for informational purposes only — not financial or agronomic advice — and is copyright innov8.ag. Signing off with Market Insights — We'll see you next week.