Market Insights

Name: US Blueberry Market Timing Intelligence — Week 40, 2026
Creator: innov8.ag
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Weekly intelligence on harvest timing, supply overlap, and pricing pressure — plan labor, sales, and logistics before the market moves.

Market Insights is new — and we're actively tuning.

We're refining our models, adding regions, and improving the analysis every week. Your feedback helps us build something genuinely useful for growers and marketers. contact us or call us — we'd love to hear from you.

Crop Alert — 17 high, 20 medium across 9 regions7-day forecast

Jalisco

Rain during ripening · Ripening · Mon, Oct 5

0.6″

Central Florida

Rain during ripening · Ripening · Mon, Oct 5

3.7″

Jalisco

Rain during ripening · Ripening · Tue, Oct 6

0.7″

Updated Oct 3 at 11:05 PM

USA+

Season:

Data as of Oct 6 06:02 AM UTC| Refresh in 29m

Region Map

TimingAheadOn TrackBehind

Status:AheadOn TrackBehindFrost alert

Early-season audio briefs are available in our archive

AI-narrated weekly market timing updates from dormancy through bloom. Last updated Mar 30, 2026. Browse archive

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Community Ground Truth

This is an unprecedented early season. We need your eyes.

2026 is the warmest early season in our 10-year dataset. GDD models are lagging behind what's actually happening in the field. It takes a community to fill the gap — one tap tells us what you're seeing.

First — which region are you in?

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Blueberry Market Brief

Overlap: Low

Week 40

Action Needed Monitor Context

Top Movers

Top Movers: Bakersfield, CA 60d ahead (5.4% of domestic fresh), accelerating. Corning, CA 60d ahead (3.8% of domestic fresh), accelerating. NC 10d ahead (10.7% of domestic fresh).

Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Week Ahead

This Week: Hammonton NJ: +65 GDD this week (-1 vs avg) — 2d ahead. Southeast GA: +103 GDD this week (+6 vs avg) — 4d behind. Bladen County NC: +90 GDD this week (+4 vs avg) — 10d ahead.

Season Events

Pollination Impact: 3 regions with Medium pollination risk this season. Worst: Traverse City MI — 12 good bee-flight days during bloom (needs 10). 3.0% of domestic fresh supply.

Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.

Frost Impact: 3 regions hit by frost this season. SW (Van Buren) MI: 2 frost days during Dormant (Mar 23-24, low 22°F) — 10.1% of domestic fresh supply; Prosser WA: 2 frost days during Dormant (Mar 26-27, low 27°F) — 6.2% of domestic fresh supply.

Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

Rain Impact: 4 regions hit by significant rain during Ripening. Worst: SW (Van Buren) MI: 4 rain days during Ripening (Sep 15-20, total 2.9″, peak 1.1″). 10.1% of domestic fresh supply.

Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

Market Context

Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending 20% below historical average. Peak projected weeks 14–44 (Apr–Nov).

Import Context: Active import supply: Peru 32% of US fresh (peak).

A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →

This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

Sources:USDA NASS 2023 IBO Nov 2023 USDA AMS FOB USDA FAS HortScience 2012 Open-Meteo

This Market Insights brief is copyrighted by innov8.ag

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Region Overview

Region	Supply Wt	Days ±	GDD Delta	Overlap
Central FL Emerald, Jewel FAWN Alachua	Low	+3dahead	+24
Southeast GA Star, Farthing GAEMN	High	-4dbehind	-45
Bakersfield CA Emerald CIMIS Bakersfield	Medium (est.)	+60dahead	+857
Watsonville CA Emerald, Draper CIMIS Watsonville	Medium (est.)	+16dahead	+148
Fresno CA Emerald, Jewel CIMIS Parlier	—	+10dahead	+142	—
Bladen County NC Star, Farthing ECONet Whiteville	Medium	+10dahead	+105
Corning CA Draper, Aurora CIMIS Durham	Medium (est.)	+60dahead	+773
Willamette Valley OR Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott AgriMet Corvallis	High	+3dahead	+14
Hammonton NJ Duke, Bluecrop NJWxNet	Medium	+2dahead	+24
SW (Van Buren) MI Bluecrop, Elliott EnviroWeather	Medium (est.)	+8dahead	+78
Prosser WA Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call AWN Prosser	Medium (est.)	-10dbehind🐝 8.0h	-127
NW Washington WA Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call AWN Mt Vernon	Medium (est.)	-1dbehind🐝 6.9h	-17
Traverse City MI Bluecrop, Jersey EnviroWeather	Low (est.)	0don track	+44
Peru import 32% of US fresh Wk 32–8 (325.0M lbs) In Peak
Mexico import 15% of US fresh Wk 6–22 (150.0M lbs)
Chile import 9% of US fresh Wk 48–10 (87.0M lbs)

Supply Overlap Heatmap

Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Bakersfield, CA

Central, FL

Corning, CA

Southeast, GA

Bladen County, NC

Watsonville, CA

Hammonton, NJ

NW Washington, WA

Willamette Valley, OR

Traverse City, MI

Prosser, WA

SW (Van Buren), MI

Peru

Mexico

Chile

Total OPI

142

183

162

179

216

193

172

190

282

206

166

204

211

212

213

175

177

178

161

150

High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

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On-farm ground truth

Regional signals show market context — but decisions happen at the block level. FairPick and FairTrak connect real-time harvest data to piece-rate labor management, giving you the on-farm ground truth this dashboard can't.

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Need supply/demand modeling, pricing scenarios, or help translating these signals into your harvest plan? Our agronomic team works directly with grower leadership.

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Frost & Rain Events

Type	Region	Dates	Days	Impact	Severity	GDD Range
Rain	Southeast — GA	Oct 2-5	4	2.7″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Oct 4	1	0.2″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Oct 4	1	0.3″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Sep 30 – Oct 1	2	2.1″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Sep 30 – Oct 1	2	0.6″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Sep 29	1	0.9″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 26-27	2	1.9″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Sep 24-25	2	0.6″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 23	1	0.3″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 20	1	0.4″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Sep 15-20	4	2.9″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 17	1	0.4″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Sep 15	1	1.2″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 13	1	0.5″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Prosser — WA	Sep 12	1	0.4″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Sep 11	1	0.2″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Sep 9	1	0.6″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Sep 6-7	2	0.7″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Sep 7	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Sep 3-5	3	1.9″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Sep 1-3	2	1.1″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Sep 3	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Aug 31	1	0.3″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Aug 30-31	2	0.5″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Aug 25-30	5	2.7″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Aug 29	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Aug 28	1	0.2″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Aug 20-23	3	1.5″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Aug 23	1	0.2″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Aug 22	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Aug 17	1	0.4″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Aug 13	1	0.2″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Aug 9-11	3	1.1″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Aug 6-9	3	1.2″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Aug 2-5	3	2.4″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Aug 5	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Aug 5	1	0.6″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Aug 2	1	0.5″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Aug 1	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jul 27-28	2	1.7″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jul 27	1	0.6″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jul 27	1	1.5″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jul 21	1	0.9″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jul 21	1	0.7″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Jul 18-20	2	0.6″	Ripening	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jul 18	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jul 18	1	0.9″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Jul 13-15	3	1.0″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jul 11	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jul 9	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jul 9	1	0.2″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jul 6	1	0.5″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jul 3-5	3	1.4″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Jul 2	1	0.2″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jun 30 – Jul 1	2	0.8″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jun 27	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Traverse City — MI	Jun 24-25	2	1.2″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jun 21-24	3	0.9″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jun 22-23	2	1.4″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Jun 14-22	7	4.7″	Ripening	Extreme	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jun 14	1	0.6″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	Jun 10-12	2	0.9″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jun 9-11	2	1.4″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	NW Washington — WA	Jun 8-9	2	0.9″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Jun 5-6	2	0.9″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	May 28 – Jun 2	4	1.6″	Ripening	High	—
Rain	Watsonville — CA	May 28	1	0.6″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Prosser — WA	May 28	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	May 27	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	May 23-25	3	1.1″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Prosser — WA	May 25	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Hammonton — NJ	May 21-24	3	1.4″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	May 9-13	4	1.7″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Apr 29 – May 2	3	2.5″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	May 2	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	218
Frost	Traverse City — MI	May 2	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Moderate	80
Rain	Watsonville — CA	Apr 26	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Bakersfield — CA	Apr 25	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Fresno — CA	Apr 25	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Fresno — CA	Apr 21	1	0.5″	Fruit Set	High	—
Rain	Watsonville — CA	Apr 20-21	2	2.1″	Fruit Set	Extreme	—
Rain	Corning — CA	Apr 20-21	2	1.7″	Fruit Set	High	—
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Apr 21	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	252
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Apr 20	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)	High	161
Frost	Prosser — WA	Apr 17	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)5h frost	Moderate	133
Rain	Bakersfield — CA	Apr 12	1	0.2″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Fresno — CA	Apr 10-12	2	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Watsonville — CA	Apr 10-12	3	1.2″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Corning — CA	Apr 9-12	4	2.5″	Bloom	Extreme	—
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Apr 11	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Moderate	91
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Apr 8-9	2	Low 28F (-2.2C)	Moderate	155
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Apr 6-8	3	Low 23F (-5.0C)	Extreme	81–82
Frost	Prosser — WA	Apr 3	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)4h frost	Moderate	77
Rain	Corning — CA	Mar 31	1	0.4″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Prosser — WA	Mar 31	1	Low 27F (-2.8C)6h frost / 3h hard	High	74
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Mar 30	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)7h frost / 1h hard	High	80
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Mar 29	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Moderate	381
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 29	1	Low 26F (-3.3C)	High	88
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Mar 27-28	2	Low 24F (-4.4C)	Extreme	53
Frost	Prosser — WA	Mar 26-27	2	Low 27F (-2.8C)12h frost / 8h hard	High	70
Frost	Willamette Valley — OR	Mar 26	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Moderate	90
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 24	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	73
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Mar 23-24	2	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Extreme	46
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Mar 23	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)3h frost	Moderate	78
Frost	Prosser — WA	Mar 22	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)6h frost	Moderate	63
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 17-19	3	Low 24F (-4.4C)	Extreme	59
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Mar 18	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	292
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 15-16	2	1.3″	Bloom	Extreme	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Mar 16	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Mar 13	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Moderate	268
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 13	1	Low 25F (-3.9C)	High	51
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 12	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 8	1	0.2″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 5	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Mar 1-2	2	Low 29F (-1.7C)10h frost	Moderate	45
Rain	Central — FL	Feb 27	1	0.4″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Central — FL	Feb 24	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Moderate	356
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 24	1	Low 27F (-2.8C)	High	255
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Feb 23-24	2	Low 28F (-2.2C)	High	115
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Feb 24	1	Low 32F (0.0C)1h frost	Moderate	42
Frost	Fresno — CA	Feb 21	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Moderate	161
Frost	Corning — CA	Feb 20	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)	High	174
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Feb 19-20	2	Low 24F (-4.4C)14h frost / 12h hard	High	42
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Feb 15	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)7h frost	Moderate	42
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Jan 24 – Feb 14	20	Low 5F (-15.0C)	Extreme	57–66
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Feb 11-12	2	Low 31F (-0.6C)10h frost	Moderate	42
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 6	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	130
Frost	NW Washington — WA	Feb 6	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)6h frost	Moderate	38
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 27 – Feb 3	7	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Extreme	188–191
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Extreme	123–124
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 19-21	3	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Moderate	95
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Jan 12-21	8	Low 19F (-7.2C)	Extreme	49–51
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 19	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Moderate	131
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 16	1	Low 27F (-2.8C)	High	125
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 16	1	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Extreme	91
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 12-13	2	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Moderate	90

GDD Accumulation

Central — FL

Emerald, Jewel

FAWN Alachua

+3dahead of 10-yr avg

Rain — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 3.7″

Rain — RipeningTue, Oct 6 · 0.5″

+3 more alerts

Updated Sep 30 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 4,365Avg: 4,341+244 frost clusters (10d)5 rain clusters (6d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Southeast — GA

Star, Farthing

GAEMN

-4dbehind 10-yr avg

Rain — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 1.1″

Rain — RipeningTue, Oct 6 · 1.0″

+1 more alert

Updated Sep 28 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 4,047Avg: 4,092-456 frost clusters (16d)14 rain clusters (43d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Bladen County — NC

Star, Farthing

ECONet Whiteville

+10dahead of 10-yr avg

Rain — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 1.2″

Rain — RipeningSun, Oct 11 · 1.5″

Updated Sep 30 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 3,623Avg: 3,518+1056 frost clusters (33d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Bakersfield — CA

Emerald

CIMIS Bakersfield

+60dahead of 10-yr avg

Heat — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 103.5°F

Heat — RipeningTue, Oct 6 · 102°F

+5 more alerts

Updated Sep 28 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 4,444Avg: 3,587+8572 rain clusters (2d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Fresno — CA

Emerald, Jewel

CIMIS Parlier

+10dahead of 10-yr avg

GDD: 3,938Avg: 3,796+142Frost: 32F on Feb 21 (Moderate)3 rain clusters (4d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Watsonville — CA

Emerald, Draper

CIMIS Watsonville

+16dahead of 10-yr avg

Heat — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 95.9°F

Heat — RipeningTue, Oct 6 · 95.4°F

+1 more alert

Updated Oct 3 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 1,990Avg: 1,842+1484 rain clusters (7d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Corning — CA

Draper, Aurora

CIMIS Durham

+60dahead of 10-yr avg

Heat — RipeningMon, Oct 5 · 102°F

Heat — RipeningTue, Oct 6 · 103.1°F

+4 more alerts

Updated Sep 28 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 3,834Avg: 3,061+773Frost: 28F on Feb 20 (High)3 rain clusters (7d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Hammonton — NJ

Duke, Bluecrop

NJWxNet

+2dahead of 10-yr avg

Rain — RipeningMon, Oct 12 · 1.1″

Updated Oct 5 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 2,648Avg: 2,624+246 frost clusters (9d)22 rain clusters (33d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

SW (Van Buren) — MI

Bluecrop, Elliott

EnviroWeather

+8dahead of 10-yr avg

GDD: 2,176Avg: 2,098+786 frost clusters (10d)14 rain clusters (28d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Traverse City — MI

Bluecrop, Jersey

EnviroWeather

0dvs 10-yr avg

GDD: 1,828Avg: 1,784+44Frost: 32F on May 2 (Moderate)14 rain clusters (18d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Willamette Valley — OR

Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott

AgriMet Corvallis

+3dahead of 10-yr avg

GDD: 1,883Avg: 1,869+14Frost: 29F on Mar 26 (Moderate)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

NW Washington — WA

Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call

AWN Mt Vernon

-1dbehind 10-yr avg

GDD: 1,446Avg: 1,463-178 frost clusters (11d)7 rain clusters (9d)

🐝 6.9h/d🌡 Soil 56°F💧 RH 89%

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Prosser — WA

Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call

AWN Prosser

-10dbehind 10-yr avg

GDD: 2,147Avg: 2,274-1275 frost clusters (6d)3 rain clusters (3d)

🐝 8.0h/d🌡 Soil 69°F💧 RH 58%

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Chill Accumulation

Central — FL

Simple Chill Hours308 / 250

100%

Utah Model Units-316 / 275

-115%

Southeast — GA

Simple Chill Hours563 / 400

100%

Utah Model Units249 / 440

57%

Bladen County — NC

Simple Chill Hours961 / 400

100%

Utah Model Units651 / 440

100%

Bakersfield — CA

Simple Chill Hours542 / 250

100%

Utah Model Units737 / 275

100%

Fresno — CA

Simple Chill Hours836 / 250

100%

Utah Model Units1,107 / 275

100%

Watsonville — CA

Simple Chill Hours285 / 250

100%

Utah Model Units632 / 275

100%

Corning — CA

Simple Chill Hours749 / 1,000

75%

Utah Model Units1,209 / 1,100

100%

Medium Risk

Insufficient chill may delay bloom and reduce fruit set

Hammonton — NJ

Simple Chill Hours2,271 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,079 / 1,100

98%

SW (Van Buren) — MI

Simple Chill Hours3,002 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,013 / 1,100

92%

Traverse City — MI

Simple Chill Hours3,365 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units919 / 1,100

84%

Willamette Valley — OR

Simple Chill Hours1,660 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,978 / 1,100

100%

NW Washington — WA

Simple Chill Hours2,557 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units2,799 / 1,100

100%

Prosser — WA

Simple Chill Hours2,111 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,772 / 1,100

100%

Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 40

Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 40

Highlights

- Frost hit SW (Van Buren) MI (Ripening), NW Washington WA (Fruit Set)

- Rain damage: La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru, Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru, SW (Van Buren) MI, Traverse City MI, NW Washington WA, Prosser WA, Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC

- Watsonville CA running 60d ahead of average

Top Movers by Market Impact

Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

- Watsonville, CA: 60d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- Bakersfield, CA: 28d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- SW (Van Buren), MI: 14d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)

- Bladen County, NC: 11d ahead (40M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)

- Corning, CA: 23d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)

> Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

This Week

- Central FL: +118 GDD this week — 1d behind

- Southeast GA: +105 GDD this week — 3d ahead

- Bladen County NC: +94 GDD this week — 11d ahead

- Bakersfield CA: +101 GDD this week — 28d ahead

- Watsonville CA: +57 GDD this week — 60d ahead

Frost Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

- 1 region hit by frost this season

- SW (Van Buren) MI: Moderate frost at Bud Break (31°F on May 2) (10.1% of domestic fresh supply)

> Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

Rain Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation

- 6 regions hit by significant rain

- SW (Van Buren) MI: 4 rain days during Ripening (Sep 15-20, total 2.9″, peak 1.1″) (10.1% of domestic fresh supply)

- Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru: 3 rain days during Ripening (Feb 23-25, total 2.9″, peak 1.6″) (import — 32% of US fresh)

- Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC: 3 rain days during Ripening (Sep 24-26, total 1.6″, peak 0.9″) (import)

- Traverse City MI: 2 rain days during Ripening (Sep 30 – Oct 1, total 0.6″, peak 0.3″) (3.0% of domestic fresh supply)

- La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru: 2 rain days during Ripening (Jan 15-16, total 0.5″, peak 0.3″) (import — 32% of US fresh)

- Prosser WA: 0.4″ on Sep 12 at Ripening (6.2% of domestic fresh supply)

> Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

- Supply overlap trending 33% below historical average — Risk: Low

- Current peak OPI: 236M lbs (week 21)

- Historical peak: 355M lbs

- Peak window: weeks 13–44 (Apr–Nov)

Active Import Windows

Source: USDA FAS annual reports

- Peru: 325.0M lbs annually, 32% of US fresh (IN PEAK)

FOB Reference

Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)

- Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$18 $/flat 12 1-pt during peak weeks 13–44

- 2022: ~$20 (+11% vs avg)

- 2023: ~$18

- 2024: ~$18

Chill Risk

Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

- Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set

- Regions at risk: La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru (0%, 0% fresh); Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru (0%, 0% fresh)

> Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.

Top Movers by Market Impact

Watsonville, CA: 60d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 28d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
SW (Van Buren), MI: 14d ahead — 38.0M lbs fresh (10.1% of domestic)
Bladen County, NC: 11d ahead — 40.2M lbs fresh (10.7% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 23d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)

Overlap Pressure Index

Risk level: Low. Peak OPI: 236M lbs at week 21 (historical: 355M lbs).

Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

Disclaimer

This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.