Market Insights

Name: US Blueberry Market Timing Intelligence — Week 8, 2026
Creator: innov8.ag
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

When multiple growing regions ship simultaneously, FOB prices compress and labor bottlenecks emerge. This dashboard tracks the weather signals that drive harvest timing across major US blueberry and cherry regions — supply-weighted by fresh-market production volume and updated daily.

Season:

Blueberry Market Intelligence

16 regions tracked · OPI: Medium

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Cherry Market Intelligence

11 regions tracked · OPI: Low

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Data as of Feb 23, 2026 06:01 AM UTC

Loading regions (10/12)...

USA+

Blueberry Market Brief

Overlap: Medium

Week 8

Audio market brief coming soon. Subscribe above for weekly email updates.

This Week: GA Alma: +64 GDD this week (+28 vs avg) — on track. NC Bladen County: +44 GDD this week (+20 vs avg) — 7d behind. CA Bakersfield: +18 GDD this week (-13 vs avg) — 6d ahead.

Momentum: GA, NC accumulating faster than normal. CA slowing relative to average.

Frost This Week: NC Bladen County: 1 event (Moderate). CA Corning: 1 event (Moderate).

Top Movers: CA 26d ahead (4.9% of domestic fresh). NC 7d behind (11.4% of domestic fresh). CA 6d ahead (5.7% of domestic fresh).

Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending at historical average. Peak projected weeks 17–35 (Apr–Sep).

Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.

Import Context: Active import supply: Peru 32% of US fresh, Mexico 15% of US fresh, Chile 8% of US fresh.

Peru/Mexico volume may suppress prices during your harvest window. Quantify break-even before committing full crew.

Frost Impact: 2 regions hit by frost this season. FL Gainesville: 6 frost days during Bud Break (Jan 27 – Feb 3, low 22°F) — 4.4% fresh; GA Alma: frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) — 22.8% fresh.

Check crop insurance trigger thresholds. If Extreme (<24°F): assess damage within 48 hours for claim documentation.

Frost Watch: 3 regions with frost risk in 7-day forecast (worst: FL Gainesville, Bud Break). Monitor conditions closely.

Check crop insurance trigger thresholds. If Extreme (<24°F): assess damage within 48 hours for claim documentation.

A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →

This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

Sources:USDA NASS 2023 IBO Nov 2023 USDA AMS FOB USDA FAS HortScience 2012 Open-Meteo

This analysis reflects regional timing signals, not block-level conditions or actual yields.

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On-farm ground truth

Regional signals show market context — but decisions happen at the block level. FairPick and FairTrak connect real-time harvest data to piece-rate labor management, giving you the on-farm ground truth this dashboard can't.

See how it works →

Economic consulting

Want custom supply/demand analysis, pricing scenarios, or litigation support for your operation? Our partners at Finology bring financial economics expertise to natural resources and primary industries.

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Region Overview

Region	Supply Wt	Stage	Shift	Status	GDD Delta
CA — Watsonville Emerald, Draper	Medium (est.)	Bud Break	+26d	Ahead	+89
NC — Bladen County Star, Farthing	Medium	Dormant	-7d	Behind	-33
CA — Bakersfield Emerald	Medium (est.)	Bud Break	+6d	Ahead	+26
FL — Gainesville Emerald, Jewel	Low	Bud Break	-6d	Behind	-50
CA — Corning Draper, Aurora	Medium (est.)	Dormant	+1d	On Track	+1
GA — Alma Star, Farthing	High	Bud Break	0d	On Track	-10
OR — Salem Duke, Bluecrop, Elliott	High	Dormant	0d	On Track	-2
NJ — Hammonton Duke, Bluecrop	Medium	Dormant	0d	On Track	-25
MI — Traverse City Bluecrop, Jersey	Medium (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	0
WA — Prosser Bluecrop, Elliott, Last Call	Medium (est.)
WA — Mt Vernon Duke, Draper, Last Call	Medium (est.)
MI — Grand Junction Bluecrop, Elliott	Medium (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	+4
Peru import 32% of US fresh Wk 32–8 (325M lbs) Active
Mexico import 15% of US fresh Wk 6–22 (165M lbs) Active
Chile import 8% of US fresh Wk 48–10 (84M lbs) Active

Supply Overlap Heatmap

Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

FL Gainesvi

CA Watsonvi

CA Bakersfi

GA Alma

CA Corning

NC Bladen C

NJ Hammonto

OR Salem

MI Grand Ju

MI Traverse

WA Mt Verno

WA Prosser

Peru

Mexico

Chile

Total OPI

145

200

198

197

293

271

362

262

244

190

196

197

198

199

161

162

163

High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

Region Map

Stage:DormantBud BreakBloomFruit SetRipeningHarvest

Status:AheadOn TrackBehind

Frost Events

Type	Region	Dates	Days	Impact	Stage	Severity	GDD Range
Frost	NC — Bladen County	Feb 23	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Dormant	Moderate	122
Frost	CA — Corning	Feb 20	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Dormant	Moderate	155
Frost	FL — Gainesville	Feb 6-8	2	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Bud Break	Moderate	185–195
Frost	GA — Alma	Feb 6	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)	Dormant	Moderate	125
Frost	FL — Gainesville	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Bud Break	Extreme	178–180
Frost	GA — Alma	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Dormant	Extreme	120
Frost	GA — Alma	Jan 12-21	8	Low 19F (-7.2C)	Dormant	Extreme	88–93
Frost	FL — Gainesville	Jan 19-20	2	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Dormant	Moderate	123–124
Frost	FL — Gainesville	Jan 16	1	Low 25F (-3.9C)	Dormant	High	119

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

WA — Mt Vernon

WA — Prosser

100%

Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 8

Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 8

This Week

- FL Gainesville: +66 GDD this week — 6d behind

- GA Alma: +64 GDD this week — on track

- NC Bladen County: +44 GDD this week — 7d behind

- CA Bakersfield: +18 GDD this week — 6d ahead

Top Movers by Market Impact

Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

- CA — Watsonville: 26d ahead (17.5M lbs fresh, 4.9% of domestic)

- NC — Bladen County: 7d behind (40.2M lbs fresh, 11.4% of domestic)

- CA — Bakersfield: 6d ahead (20.2M lbs fresh, 5.7% of domestic)

- FL — Gainesville: 6d behind (15.7M lbs fresh, 4.4% of domestic)

- CA — Corning: 1d ahead (14.3M lbs fresh, 4.0% of domestic)

> Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

- Supply overlap trending at historical average — Risk: Medium

- Current peak OPI: 362M lbs (week 26)

- Historical peak: 362M lbs

- Peak window: weeks 17–35 (Apr–Sep)

> Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.

Import Supply

Source: USDA FAS annual reports

- Peru, Mexico, Chile currently supplying US fresh market — maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of domestic season

Frost Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

- 2 regions hit by frost this season

- FL Gainesville: 6 frost days during Bud Break (Jan 27 – Feb 3, low 22°F) (4.4% of domestic fresh)

- GA Alma: Extreme frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) (22.8% of domestic fresh)

> Action: Check crop insurance trigger thresholds. If Extreme (<24°F): assess damage within 48 hours for claim documentation.

Chill Risk

Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

- Insufficient chill accumulation: Peru Virú (La Libertad) (0%, 0.0% fresh), Peru Olmos (Lambayeque) (0%, 0.0% fresh), Mexico Zapotlanejo (1%, 0.0% fresh), Mexico San Quintín (10%, 0.0% fresh), CA Corning (76%, 4.0% fresh)

- May delay or reduce bloom quality

> Action: Low chill may delay or reduce bloom uniformity. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate.

Rain Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation

- 2 regions hit by significant rain

- Peru Olmos (Lambayeque): 48.1mm on Feb 23 at Ripening (0.0% of domestic fresh)

- Peru Virú (La Libertad): 2 rain days during Ripening (Jan 15-16, total 14mm, peak 9mm) (0.0% of domestic fresh)

> Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

Top Movers by Market Impact

CA — Watsonville: 26d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.9% of domestic)
NC — Bladen County: 7d behind — 40.2M lbs fresh (11.4% of domestic)
CA — Bakersfield: 6d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.7% of domestic)
FL — Gainesville: 6d behind — 15.7M lbs fresh (4.4% of domestic)
CA — Corning: 1d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (4.0% of domestic)

Overlap Pressure Index

Risk level: Medium. Peak OPI: 362M lbs at week 26 (historical: 362M lbs).

Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

Disclaimer

This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.