Welcome to Market Insights by innov8.ag. Today's update is for the week of March 2nd, 2026 — here's what's moving in blueberry markets.
Starting with this week's highlights: Frost hit Central Florida during bloom, Southeast Georgia at bud break, and Bladen County North Carolina while dormant. We're seeing high pollination risk in Central Florida. Chill deficits are locked in for Jalisco Mexico at 1%, San Quintín Mexico at 10%, and Corning California at a concerning 76%. Meanwhile, Watsonville California is running 37 days ahead of the 5-year historical average — meaning growing degree day accumulation is outpacing what we've typically seen at this point in the season, which signals an earlier harvest window.
Let's start with frost impact from observed temperatures. Three regions have been hit by frost this season. Central Florida experienced 6 frost days during bud break from January 27th through February 3rd, with lows hitting 22 degrees. This represents 5.8% of domestic fresh supply. Southeast Georgia saw extreme frost at dormant stage — 19 degrees on January 15th — affecting 20.2% of domestic fresh supply. Bladen County North Carolina had high frost at dormant stage with 27 degrees on February 23rd, impacting 10.7% of domestic fresh supply. Growers in affected areas should assess bloom and bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos.
For pollination impact, we have one region with high pollination risk this season. Central Florida, representing 5.8% of domestic fresh supply, is showing the worst conditions. Growers there may want to consider supplemental pollination options — increase hive density to 2 to 4 hives per acre, deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early and cool bloom conditions.
Since last week, we've seen some significant shifts. Central Florida entered bloom from bud break. Watsonville California moved 5 days further ahead this week. Corning California entered bud break from dormant. Skagit Valley Washington shifted 28 days, falling behind this week. Prosser Washington shifted 10 days, also falling behind this week.
Looking at our top movers by market impact: Watsonville California leads at 37 days ahead of average, representing 18 million pounds fresh or 5% of domestic supply. Bladen County North Carolina is 7 days behind average with 40 million pounds fresh, 11% of domestic supply. Bakersfield California sits 13 days ahead with 20 million pounds fresh, 5% of domestic supply. Skagit Valley Washington is 24 days ahead with 10 million pounds fresh, 3% of domestic supply. Southeast Georgia is 3 days behind average, representing 76 million pounds fresh or 20% of domestic supply. Growers should review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
This week's growing degree day, or GDD, gains: Central Florida added 52 GDD this week and sits 6 days behind average. Southeast Georgia gained 48 GDD, now 3 days behind average. Bladen County North Carolina accumulated 30 GDD, remaining 7 days behind average. Bakersfield California picked up 69 GDD, sitting 13 days ahead of average. Watsonville California gained 62 GDD, now 37 days ahead of average.
Our Overlap Pressure Index is trending 6% below historical average, indicating low risk. The current peak OPI signals 335 million pounds in week 26, compared to the historical peak of 355 million pounds. The peak window runs from weeks 18 through 35, covering May through September. For context, the 2023 cherry season saw roughly 70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving about 35% of the crop unharvested.
Active import windows show Mexico supplying 150 million pounds annually, representing 15% of US fresh supply. Chile contributes 87 million pounds annually, or 9% of US fresh supply. These imports maintain year-round retail availability ahead of the domestic season.
For chill risk, we have insufficient chill accumulation in three regions. Jalisco Mexico shows a 1% deficit affecting 0% of fresh supply. San Quintín Mexico has a 10% deficit, also affecting 0% of fresh supply. Most concerning is Corning California with a 76% deficit affecting 4% of fresh supply. With dormancy ended, these chill deficits are locked in for this season. Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set — expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
And before we wrap up — What did the farmer say when he lost his tractor? Where's my tractor? [pause]
In closing, we used AI tooling to create this brief — and using AI tools is a lot like farming! The best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. But we're building these insights in the open, so if something sounds off, let us know. Visit innov8.ag to share your feedback, and forward this update to a colleague who will get a kick out of it! This brief is for informational purposes only — not financial or agronomic advice — and is copyright innov8.ag. Signing off with Market Insights — We'll see you next week!