Tracking Harvest Timing Across US Blueberry Regions
The US blueberry industry ships approximately 354 million pounds of fresh fruit annually from a production base spanning Florida to Washington state, with a growing season that stretches from March through October. When multiple regions ship simultaneously, fresh-market FOB prices compress and growers face both labor competition and downward pricing pressure.
This page tracks the weather-driven signals that determine when each region enters its harvest window. Growing degree day (GDD) models predict phenological timing — bud break, bloom, fruit set, and ripening — while chill accumulation data validates whether winter dormancy requirements have been met. Together, these signals power the Overlap Pressure Index (OPI), a supply-weighted measure of how much fresh fruit will reach market in any given week.
All data updates daily using gridded weather observations from Open-Meteo and production volumes from USDA NASS. Region-specific variety profiles (Southern Highbush vs. Northern Highbush) and fresh/processing splits ensure that timing predictions reflect each region's actual cultivar mix and market orientation.
US Blueberry Production Overview
US blueberry production in 2023 totaled approximately 560 million pounds of cultivated fruit across seven primary states. After accounting for fresh vs. processing splits (which vary enormously by state — from 99% fresh in Florida to just 25% fresh in western Washington), roughly 354 million pounds reached the fresh market.
| State | Fresh Production | Share of Domestic Fresh | Supply Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| GA | 76.1M lbs | 20.2% | High |
| OR | 58.1M lbs | 15.4% | High |
| CA | 52.0M lbs | 13.8% | Medium |
| MI | 49.4M lbs | 13.1% | Medium |
| NC | 40.2M lbs | 10.7% | Medium |
| WA | 40.5M lbs | 10.7% | Medium |
| NJ | 38.6M lbs | 10.3% | Medium |
| FL | 21.8M lbs | 5.8% | Low |
Georgia leads domestic fresh production (22.8% share) due to its combination of large acreage and high fresh-market orientation (81% fresh). Oregon produces more total volume but sends only 45% to fresh markets, with the balance going to processing (IQF, juice, dried). Michigan is similar — the state's 56% fresh share masks the fact that its SW region (Van Buren County) is heavily processing-oriented (Elliott variety) while the Traverse City area is more fresh-focused.
Source: USDA NASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary 2023; fresh/processing splits from IBO November 2023 report.
Regional Growing Season Calendar
The table below shows domestic growing regions with their planted varieties, typical harvest windows, GDD base temperatures, and chill hour requirements. Harvest timing data is derived from the interactive dashboard below and updates daily.
| State | Region | Varieties | Harvest | GDD Base | Chill Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | Central | Emerald, Jewel | Mar–May | 45°F | 250 hrs |
| GA | Southeast | Star, Farthing | Apr–Jun | 45°F | 300–400 hrs |
| NC | Bladen County | Star, Farthing | May–Jul | 45°F | 300–400 hrs |
| CA | Bakersfield | Emerald | Apr–Jun | 45°F | 250 hrs |
| CA | Fresno | Emerald, Jewel | Apr–Jun | 45°F | 250–300 hrs |
| CA | Watsonville | Emerald, Draper | Apr–Jul | 45°F | 250–1000 hrs |
| CA | Corning | Draper, Aurora | May–Jul | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| NJ | Hammonton | Duke, Bluecrop | Jun–Aug | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| MI | SW (Van Buren) | Bluecrop, Elliott | Jul–Sep | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| MI | Traverse City | Bluecrop, Jersey | Jul–Sep | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| OR | Willamette Valley | Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott | Jun–Sep | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| WA | NW Washington | Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call | Jul–Oct | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| WA | Prosser | Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call | Jul–Oct | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
| BC | Abbotsford/Fraser Valley | Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott | Jul–Oct | 45°F | 1000 hrs |
Import Competition
Fresh blueberry imports now roughly equal total domestic fresh production. In 2024, the US imported approximately 684 million pounds of fresh blueberries — with three countries supplying over 90% of that volume:
| Origin | Volume | Share of US Imports | Window | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peru | 325M lbs | 49% | Aug–Feb | Sep–Dec |
| Mexico | 165M lbs | 22% | Feb–May | Mar–May |
| Chile | 84M lbs | 19% | Nov–Mar | Dec–Feb |
Peru has emerged as the dominant import origin, doubling its volume since 2020. Its peak shipping season (September–December) overlaps with the late Pacific Northwest domestic harvest (August–September), creating a compression window where both domestic and imported fruit compete for shelf space. Mexico has strategically shifted its production window to February–May to fill the gap between Peru's decline and the US domestic ramp-up. Chile's share is declining as Peru grows, though it still supplies counter-seasonal fruit during the US winter.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual reports for Peru, Mexico, and Chile; Blue Book Services 2024.
Understanding Overlap Pressure
The Overlap Pressure Index (OPI) quantifies how much fresh fruit from multiple regions will be on the market simultaneously. Unlike simple calendar overlaps, OPI is supply-weighted — a region that ships 80 million pounds of fresh fruit matters more than one that ships 15 million pounds.
OPI is calculated weekly by summing the estimated fresh-market volume from every region whose GDD models predict active harvest in that week. The result is expressed in millions of pounds per week. When OPI spikes above historical averages, it signals potential FOB price compression — more fruit chasing the same retail shelf space.
Key OPI dynamics for blueberries:
- Early season (April–May): Low OPI — only California and the Southeast are shipping, plus Mexican imports are trailing off
- Mid-season (June–July): Rising OPI — North Carolina, New Jersey, Michigan, and Oregon enter harvest
- Peak compression (July–August): Maximum OPI — all domestic regions are active, and Peru begins shipping, while PNW operations scale up
- Late season (September–October): Declining domestic, but Peru volume peaks, sustaining market supply