Welcome to Market Insights by innov8.ag. Today's update is for the week of March 2nd, 2026 — here's what's moving in cherry markets.
This week's highlights: We've got chill deficits locked in for Stockton California at 80 percent and Hollister California at 46 percent. Meanwhile, Columbia Basin Washington is running 17 days ahead of the 5-year historical average.
Since last week, we're seeing some significant shifts. Hollister California entered bloom — it was at bud break last week. Chelan Washington shifted 6 days further ahead this week, and Okanogan Washington around Oroville and Tonasket shifted 5 days further ahead this week.
Let's look at our top movers by market impact. Stockton California is tracking 10 days ahead of the 5-year historical average — meaning growing degree day accumulation is outpacing what we've typically seen at this point in the season, which signals an earlier harvest window. Stockton represents 108 million pounds fresh, about 19 percent of domestic supply. Hollister California is 15 days ahead of average, with 72 million pounds fresh — that's 12 percent of domestic. The Dalles Oregon is 13 days ahead at 73 million pounds fresh, 13 percent of domestic. And Columbia Basin Washington is 17 days ahead with 33 million pounds fresh, 6 percent of domestic supply.
Growers in these regions should review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Looking at this week's growing degree days, or GDD gains: Stockton California added 74 GDD this week, keeping it 10 days ahead of average. Hollister California gained 79 GDD, now 15 days ahead. The Dalles Oregon picked up 23 GDD, staying 13 days ahead. Columbia Basin Washington added 27 GDD, maintaining its 17-day lead. Wenatchee Washington gained 24 GDD and remains on track with historical averages.
Our Overlap Pressure Index signals supply overlap trending 6 percent below historical average — that's low risk territory. The current peak OPI sits at 549 million pounds in week 22, compared to the historical peak of 582 million pounds. The peak window remains weeks 22 through 30, June through July. For context, the 2023 cherry season saw about 70 percent of US volume land in a single month, which collapsed FOB prices and left roughly 35 percent of the crop unharvested.
We're tracking chill accumulation using the Utah model, and we've got some concerns locked in for this season since dormancy has ended. Stockton California only hit 80 percent of its chill target — that's 19 percent of fresh supply at risk. Hollister California is at 46 percent of target — that's 12 percent of fresh supply. Below 90 percent risks delayed or uneven flowering, and below 70 percent risks reduced fruit set. Growers in these areas should budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set that may result from uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out.
Chile is currently supplying the US fresh market, maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of our domestic season. This ensures consistent shelf presence without competitive pressure since we're months away from domestic harvest.
For FOB reference, historical averages from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service show about 47 dollars per 20-pound carton during peak weeks 22 through 30. In 2023, prices averaged 45 dollars, and 2024 came in right at that 47-dollar historical average.
And before we wrap up — Why don't farmers ever tell secrets in a cornfield? Because the corn has ears! [pause]
In closing, we used AI tooling to create this brief — and using AI tools is a lot like farming! The best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. But we're building these insights in the open, so if something sounds off, let us know. Visit innov8.ag to share your feedback, and forward this update to a colleague who will get a kick out of it! This brief is for informational purposes only — not financial or agronomic advice — and is copyright innov8.ag. Signing off with Market Insights — We'll see you next week!