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    Market Insights

    Weekly intelligence on harvest timing, supply overlap, and pricing pressure — plan labor, sales, and logistics before the market moves.

    Market Insights is new — and we're actively tuning.

    We're refining our models, adding regions, and improving the analysis every week. Your feedback helps us build something genuinely useful for growers and marketers. contact us or call us — we'd love to hear from you.

    Crop Alert — 3 high, 39 medium across 6 regions7-day forecast
    Jalisco
    Rain during ripening · Ripening · Mon, Jul 6
    0.7″
    SE Georgia
    Rain during ripening · Ripening · Sun, Jul 5
    1.5″
    Jalisco
    Rain during ripening · Ripening · Wed, Jul 8
    0.6″
    Updated Jun 28 at 11:05 PM
    USA+
    Data as of Jul 5 06:03 AM UTC| Refresh in 29m

    Region Map

    TimingAheadOn TrackBehind
    Status:AheadOn TrackBehindFrost alert
    +1d
    -1d
    +2d
    0d
    +7d
    0d
    0d
    +4d
    +6d
    +3d
    +6d
    -6d
    0d

    Early-season audio briefs are available in our archive

    AI-narrated weekly market timing updates from dormancy through bloom. Last updated Mar 30, 2026. Browse archive

    Listen

    Community Ground Truth

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    Blueberry Market Brief

    Overlap: Medium
    Week 27
    Action Needed Monitor Context

    Top Movers

    Top Movers: OR 6d ahead (15.4% of domestic fresh). MI 6d ahead (10.1% of domestic fresh). NJ 4d ahead (10.3% of domestic fresh).

    Changes This Past Week

    Changes This Week: Traverse City MI entered Fruit Set (was Bloom).

    Week Ahead

    This Week: Southeast GA: +126 GDD this week (= avg) — 1d behind. Willamette Valley OR: +67 GDD this week (-5 vs avg) — 6d ahead. Central FL: +127 GDD this week (+3 vs avg) — 1d ahead.

    Season Events

    Pollination Impact: 6 regions with High pollination risk this season. Worst: NW Washington WA — 18 good bee-flight days during bloom (needs 10). 4.5% of domestic fresh supply.
    Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
    Frost Impact: 4 regions hit by frost this season. Southeast GA: frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) — 20.2% of domestic fresh supply; SW (Van Buren) MI: 2 frost days during Dormant (Mar 23-24, low 22°F) — 10.1% of domestic fresh supply.
    Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
    Rain Impact: 8 regions hit by significant rain during Ripening. Worst: Southeast GA: 7 rain days during Ripening (Jun 14-22, total 4.7″, peak 2.1″). 20.2% of domestic fresh supply.
    Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

    Market Context

    Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending 5% below historical average. Peak projected weeks 20–34 (May–Aug).
    Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.
    Chill Risk: Winter chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed or uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set. Corning CA (75% of target, 3.8% of domestic fresh supply). Dormancy ended — deficit locked in.
    Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
    Season Pattern: This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (76% similarity), when FOB data limited. Key driver: late GA start.
    A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →
    This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

    This Market Insights brief is copyrighted by innov8.ag

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    Pin your region for personalized insights — tap the ☆ next to any region below to highlight it across all analyses.

    Region Overview

    Region
    Days ±
    Key Risk
    Central FL
    +1dahead
    Southeast GA
    -1dbehind
    Bakersfield CA
    0don track
    Watsonville CA
    0don track
    Fresno CA
    +7dahead
    Bladen County NC
    +2dahead
    Corning CA
    0don track
    Willamette Valley OR
    +6dahead
    Hammonton NJ
    +4dahead
    SW (Van Buren) MI
    +6dahead
    Prosser WA
    0don track
    NW Washington WA
    -6dbehind
    Traverse City MI
    +3dahead
    Peru import
    32% of US fresh
    Wk 32–8 (325.0M lbs)
    Mexico import
    15% of US fresh
    Wk 6–22 (150.0M lbs)
    Chile import
    9% of US fresh
    Wk 48–10 (87.0M lbs)

    Supply Overlap Heatmap

    Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

    1
    2
    3
    Jan
    5
    6
    7
    Feb
    9
    10
    11
    Mar
    13
    14
    15
    Apr
    17
    18
    19
    May
    21
    22
    23
    Jun
    25
    26
    27
    Jul
    29
    30
    31
    Aug
    33
    34
    35
    Sep
    37
    38
    39
    Oct
    41
    42
    43
    Nov
    45
    46
    47
    Dec
    49
    50
    51
    Dec
    Central, FL
    Bakersfield, CA
    Watsonville, CA
    Corning, CA
    Southeast, GA
    Bladen County, NC
    Willamette Valley, OR
    Hammonton, NJ
    SW (Van Buren), MI
    Traverse City, MI
    Prosser, WA
    NW Washington, WA
    Peru
    Mexico
    Chile
    Total OPI
    18
    17
    16
    16
    15
    20
    20
    20
    35
    36
    32
    32
    70
    70
    70
    70
    84
    84
    160
    199
    294
    293
    265
    265
    314
    338
    318
    335
    335
    335
    303
    310
    235
    195
    158
    159
    160
    161
    54
    54
    54
    54
    54
    30
    30
    13
    13
    17
    18
    19
    19
    18
    High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

    Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

    Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

    JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanCentral, FLSoutheast, GABladen County, NCBakersfield, CAFresno, CAWatsonville, CACorning, CAHammonton, NJSW (Van Buren), MITraverse City, MIWillamette Valley,…NW Washington, WAProsser, WAToday+1d-1d+2d+7d+4d+6d+3d+6d-6d$10$20$30$/flatFLGACANJMIORWANC

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    Frost & Rain Events

    TypeRegionDatesDaysSeverity
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCJul 61
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLJul 51
    Moderate
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJJul 51
    Moderate
    Rain
    SW (Van Buren) — MIJul 3-53
    High
    Rain
    NW Washington — WAJul 21
    Moderate
    Rain
    Traverse City — MIJun 30 – Jul 12
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLJun 301
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCJun 26-282
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLJun 271
    Moderate
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJJun 271
    Moderate
    Rain
    Willamette Valley — ORJun 25-272
    Moderate
    Rain
    NW Washington — WAJun 261
    Moderate
    Rain
    Traverse City — MIJun 24-252
    High
    Rain
    SW (Van Buren) — MIJun 21-243
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCJun 231
    Moderate
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJJun 22-232
    High
    Rain
    Southeast — GAJun 14-227
    Extreme
    Rain
    Central — FLJun 19-212
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCJun 17-192
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLJun 13-164
    High
    Rain
    SW (Van Buren) — MIJun 141
    High
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJJun 10-122
    High
    Rain
    SW (Van Buren) — MIJun 9-112
    High
    Rain
    Willamette Valley — ORJun 81
    High
    Rain
    SW (Van Buren) — MIJun 5-62
    High
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMay 28 – Jun 24
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMay 27-304
    Extreme
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCMay 301
    Moderate
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJMay 271
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCMay 22-265
    Extreme
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMay 23-253
    High
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJMay 21-243
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMay 231
    Moderate
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMay 9-134
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMay 121
    Extreme
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCMay 111
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMay 81
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCMay 71
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMay 21
    Moderate
    Rain
    Southeast — GAApr 29 – May 23
    Extreme
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCApr 30 – May 22
    High
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMay 21
    Moderate
    Frost
    Traverse City — MIMay 21
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCApr 261
    Moderate
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 251
    Moderate
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 211
    High
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJApr 211
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 201
    High
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 10-122
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 111
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJApr 8-92
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 6-83
    Extreme
    Rain
    Central — FLApr 71
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bladen County — NCApr 51
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLApr 31
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 291
    High
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMar 27-282
    Extreme
    Frost
    Willamette Valley — ORMar 261
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 241
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMar 23-242
    Extreme
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 17-193
    Extreme
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCMar 181
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 15-162
    Extreme
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMar 161
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 131
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 121
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 81
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 51
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLFeb 271
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLFeb 241
    Moderate
    Frost
    Southeast — GAFeb 241
    High
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCFeb 23-242
    High
    Frost
    Fresno — CAFeb 211
    Moderate
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCFeb 13-142
    High
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCJan 24 – Feb 1017
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAFeb 61
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 27 – Feb 37
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 27 – Feb 38
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 19-213
    Moderate
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCJan 19-213
    Extreme
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 191
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 161
    High
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 161
    Extreme
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCJan 12-164
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 12-132
    Moderate

    GDD Accumulation

    Central — FL

    Emerald, Jewel

    FAWN Alachua

    +1dahead of 10-yr avg
    Heat — RipeningTue, Jul 7 · 99.5°F
    Heat — RipeningMon, Jul 6 · 99.3°F

    +5 more alerts

    Updated Jun 30 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 2,511Avg: 2,527-164 frost clusters (10d)17 rain clusters (25d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0650130019502600

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Southeast — GA

    Star, Farthing

    GAEMN

    -1dbehind 10-yr avg
    Rain — RipeningSun, Jul 5 · 1.5″
    Heat — RipeningSun, Jul 5 · 97.5°F

    +7 more alerts

    Updated Jul 2 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 2,180Avg: 2,257-776 frost clusters (16d)6 rain clusters (22d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0600120018002400

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Bladen County — NC

    Star, Farthing

    ECONet Whiteville

    +2dahead of 10-yr avg
    Heat — RipeningSun, Jul 5 · 99.7°F
    Heat — RipeningMon, Jul 6 · 98.2°F

    +6 more alerts

    Updated Jun 28 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 1,878Avg: 1,843+356 frost clusters (29d)11 rain clusters (18d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0500100015002000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Bakersfield — CA

    Error: Bakersfield 2026: HTTP 429

    Fresno — CA

    Emerald, Jewel

    CIMIS Parlier

    +7dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 1,993Avg: 1,822+171Frost: 32F on Feb 21 (Moderate)3 rain clusters (4d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0500100015002000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Watsonville — CA

    Error: Watsonville 2026: HTTP 429

    Corning — CA

    Error: Corning 2026: HTTP 429

    Hammonton — NJ

    Duke, Bluecrop

    NJWxNet

    +4dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 1,180Avg: 1,108+726 frost clusters (9d)6 rain clusters (10d)
    Compare:
    JanApr03006009001200

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    SW (Van Buren) — MI

    Bluecrop, Elliott

    EnviroWeather

    +6dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 913Avg: 823+906 frost clusters (10d)5 rain clusters (11d)
    Compare:
    JanApr02505007501000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Traverse City — MI

    Bluecrop, Jersey

    EnviroWeather

    +3dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 668Avg: 625+43Frost: 32F on May 2 (Moderate)2 rain clusters (4d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0200400600800

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Willamette Valley — OR

    Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott

    AgriMet Corvallis

    +6dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 828Avg: 762+66Frost: 31F on Mar 26 (Moderate)2 rain clusters (3d)
    Compare:
    JanApr02505007501000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    NW Washington — WA

    Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call

    AWN Mt Vernon

    -6dbehind 10-yr avg
    GDD: 549Avg: 615-662 rain clusters (2d)
    Compare:
    JanApr0200400600800

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Prosser — WA

    Error: Prosser 2026: HTTP 429

    Chill Accumulation

    Central — FL

    Simple Chill Hours308 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units-316 / 275

    -115%

    Southeast — GA

    Simple Chill Hours563 / 400

    100%

    Utah Model Units249 / 440

    57%

    Bladen County — NC

    Simple Chill Hours961 / 400

    100%

    Utah Model Units651 / 440

    100%

    Bakersfield — CA

    Simple Chill Hours542 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units737 / 275

    100%

    Fresno — CA

    Simple Chill Hours836 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,107 / 275

    100%

    Watsonville — CA

    Simple Chill Hours285 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units632 / 275

    100%

    Corning — CA

    Simple Chill Hours749 / 1,000

    75%

    Utah Model Units1,209 / 1,100

    100%

    Medium Risk
    Insufficient chill may delay bloom and reduce fruit set

    Hammonton — NJ

    Simple Chill Hours2,271 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,079 / 1,100

    98%

    SW (Van Buren) — MI

    Simple Chill Hours3,002 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,013 / 1,100

    92%

    Traverse City — MI

    Simple Chill Hours3,365 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units919 / 1,100

    84%

    Willamette Valley — OR

    Simple Chill Hours1,660 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,978 / 1,100

    100%

    NW Washington — WA

    Simple Chill Hours2,557 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units2,799 / 1,100

    100%

    Prosser — WA

    Simple Chill Hours2,111 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,772 / 1,100

    100%

    Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 27

    Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 27

    Highlights

    - Frost hit Southeast GA (Ripening), Bladen County NC (Ripening), Corning CA (Ripening), Hammonton NJ (Fruit Set), SW (Van Buren) MI (Fruit Set), NW Washington WA (Fruit Set)

    - Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (75%)

    - Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Southeast GA, Fresno CA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA, Hammonton NJ, SW (Van Buren) MI, Traverse City MI, NW Washington WA, Prosser WA, Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC

    - Watsonville CA running 49d ahead of average

    Top Movers by Market Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

    - Watsonville, CA: 49d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

    - Willamette Valley, OR: 8d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)

    - Bakersfield, CA: 16d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

    - Corning, CA: 17d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)

    - NW Washington, WA: 9d ahead (17M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

    > Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

    Changes Since Last Week

    - Corning CA entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)

    - Traverse City MI entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)

    This Week

    - Central FL: +127 GDD this week — 2d behind

    - Southeast GA: +126 GDD this week — 2d behind

    - Bladen County NC: +123 GDD this week — 1d ahead

    - Bakersfield CA: +100 GDD this week — 16d ahead

    - Watsonville CA: +46 GDD this week — 49d ahead

    Frost Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

    - 1 region hit by frost this season

    - Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

    > Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

    Rain Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation

    - 1 region hit by significant rain

    - Southeast GA: 7 rain days during Ripening (Jun 14-22, total 4.7″, peak 2.1″) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

    > Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

    Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

    The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

    Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

    - Supply overlap trending 1% above historical average — Risk: Medium

    - Current peak OPI: 359M lbs (week 26)

    - Historical peak: 355M lbs

    - Peak window: weeks 20–34 (May–Aug)

    > Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.

    Chill Risk

    Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

    - Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set

    - Regions at risk: San Quintín Mexico (9%, 0% fresh); Fresno CA (0%); Corning CA (75%, 4% fresh)

    > Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

    Season Pattern

    Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted

    - This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (52% similarity), when FOB data limited

    - Key driver: early CA start


    Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

    Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.

    Top Movers by Market Impact

    • Watsonville, CA: 49d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
    • Willamette Valley, OR: 8d ahead — 58.1M lbs fresh (15.4% of domestic)
    • Bakersfield, CA: 16d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
    • Corning, CA: 17d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)
    • NW Washington, WA: 9d ahead — 17.1M lbs fresh (4.5% of domestic)

    Overlap Pressure Index

    Risk level: Medium. Peak OPI: 359M lbs at week 26 (historical: 355M lbs).

    Season Pattern

    This season most resembles 2025 (52% similarity). FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.

    Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

    Disclaimer

    This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.