Market Insights

Name: US Blueberry Market Timing Intelligence — Week 10, 2026
Creator: innov8.ag
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Weekly intelligence on harvest timing, supply overlap, and pricing pressure — plan labor, sales, and logistics before the market moves.

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Season:

Data as of Mar 9 05:11 AM| Refresh in 29m

Region Map

Stage:DormantBud BreakBloomFruit SetRipeningHarvest

Status:AheadOn TrackBehindFrost alert

Audio brief last updated March 9. Next update March 15.

Week 10 Blueberry Market Brief

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Blueberry Market Brief

Overlap: Low

Week 10

Action Needed Monitor Context

Top Movers

Top Movers: Watsonville, CA 41d ahead (4.6% of domestic fresh), accelerating. OR 12d ahead (15.4% of domestic fresh). Bakersfield, CA 13d ahead (5.4% of domestic fresh), accelerating.

Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Changes This Past Week

Changes This Week: Southeast GA entered Bloom (was Bud Break). Bladen County NC entered Bud Break (was Dormant). Watsonville CA entered Bloom (was Bud Break). Watsonville CA shifted 5d further ahead this week.

Week Ahead

This Week: Hammonton NJ: +15 GDD this week (+5 vs avg) — on track. Southeast GA: +89 GDD this week (+20 vs avg) — 1d behind. SW (Van Buren) MI: +17 GDD this week (+12 vs avg) — on track.

Season Events

Pollination Impact: 2 regions with High pollination risk this season. Worst: Southeast GA — 1 good bee-flight days during bloom (needs 10). 20.2% of domestic fresh supply.

Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.

Frost Impact: 3 regions hit by frost this season. Central FL: 3 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-3, low 22°F) — 5.8% of domestic fresh supply; Southeast GA: frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) — 20.2% of domestic fresh supply.

Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

Market Context

Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average. Peak projected weeks 17–35 (Apr–Sep).

Import Context: Active import supply: Mexico 15% of US fresh (peak), Chile 9% of US fresh.

Chill Risk: Winter chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed or uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set. Corning CA (76% of target, 3.8% of domestic fresh supply). Dormancy ended — deficit locked in.

Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

Season Pattern: This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (75% similarity), when FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.

A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →

This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

Sources:USDA NASS 2023 IBO Nov 2023 USDA AMS FOB USDA FAS HortScience 2012 Open-Meteo

This Market Insights brief is copyrighted by innov8.ag

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Region Overview

Region	Supply Wt	Stage	Shift	Status	GDD Delta
Central — FL Emerald, Jewel	Low	Bloom	-3d	Behind	-51
Southeast — GA Star, Farthing	High	Bloom	-1d	On Track	-12
Bakersfield — CA Emerald	Medium (est.)	Bud Break	+13d	Ahead	+96
Watsonville — CA Emerald, Draper	Medium (est.)	Bloom	+41d	Ahead	+169
Bladen County — NC Star, Farthing	Medium	Bud Break	-2d	Behind	-20
Corning — CA Draper, Aurora	Medium (est.)	Bud Break	+13d	Ahead	+66
Willamette Valley — OR Duke, Bluecrop, Elliott	High	Dormant	+12d	Ahead	+9
Hammonton — NJ Duke, Bluecrop	Medium	Dormant	0d	Behind	-28
SW (Van Buren) — MI Bluecrop, Elliott	Medium (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	+14
Prosser — WA Bluecrop, Elliott, Last Call	Medium (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	+21
NW Washington — WA Duke, Bluecrop, Draper, Elliott, Last Call	Medium (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	+25
Traverse City — MI Bluecrop, Jersey	Low (est.)	Dormant	0d	On Track	-1
Peru import 32% of US fresh Wk 32–8 (325.0M lbs)
Mexico import 15% of US fresh Wk 6–22 (150.0M lbs) In Peak
Chile import 9% of US fresh Wk 48–10 (87.0M lbs) Active

Supply Overlap Heatmap

Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Central, FL

Watsonville, CA

Bakersfield, CA

Southeast, GA

Corning, CA

Bladen County, NC

Willamette Valley, OR

Hammonton, NJ

SW (Van Buren), MI

Traverse City, MI

NW Washington, WA

Prosser, WA

Peru

Mexico

Chile

Total OPI

146

200

257

256

293

265

335

259

241

187

193

194

195

197

159

160

103

High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

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On-farm ground truth

Regional signals show market context — but decisions happen at the block level. FairPick and FairTrak connect real-time harvest data to piece-rate labor management, giving you the on-farm ground truth this dashboard can't.

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Frost & Rain Events

Type	Region	Dates	Days	Impact	Stage	Severity	GDD Range
Frost	Central — FL	Feb 24-25	2	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Bud Break	Moderate	350–353
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 24	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Bud Break	Moderate	266
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Feb 23-24	2	Low 27F (-2.8C)	Dormant	High	125
Frost	Corning — CA	Feb 20	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Dormant	Moderate	154
Frost	Central — FL	Feb 6-8	2	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Bud Break	Moderate	194–204
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 6	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)	Dormant	Moderate	131
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Bud Break	Extreme	186–188
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Dormant	Extreme	125
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 16-21	5	Low 19F (-7.2C)	Dormant	Extreme	93–97
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 19-20	2	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Dormant	Moderate	131–132
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 16	1	Low 25F (-3.9C)	Dormant	High	126
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 12-13	2	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Dormant	Moderate	92

Simple Chill Hours2,111 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,772 / 1,100

100%

Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 10

Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 10

Highlights

- Frost hit Central FL (Bloom), Southeast GA (Bloom), Bladen County NC (Bud Break)

- Pollination risk: Southeast GA (High), Watsonville CA (High)

- Chill deficit: Jalisco Mexico (1%), San Quintín Mexico (10%), Corning CA (76%)

- Watsonville CA running 41d ahead of average

Top Movers by Market Impact

Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

- Watsonville, CA: 41d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- Willamette Valley, OR: 12d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)

- Bakersfield, CA: 13d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- Corning, CA: 13d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)

- Bladen County, NC: 2d behind (40M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)

> Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Changes Since Last Week

- Southeast GA entered Bloom (was Bud Break)

- Bladen County NC entered Bud Break (was Dormant)

- Watsonville CA entered Bloom (was Bud Break)

- Watsonville CA shifted 5d further ahead this week

- Corning CA shifted 5d further ahead this week

This Week

- Central FL: +98 GDD this week — 3d behind

- Southeast GA: +89 GDD this week — 1d behind

- Bladen County NC: +79 GDD this week — 2d behind

- Bakersfield CA: +48 GDD this week — 13d ahead

- Watsonville CA: +43 GDD this week — 41d ahead

Frost Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

- 3 regions hit by frost this season

- Central FL: 3 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-3, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)

- Southeast GA: Extreme frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

- Bladen County NC: High frost at Dormant (27°F on Feb 24) (10.7% of domestic fresh supply)

> Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

Pollination Impact

Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model

- 2 regions with High pollination risk this season

- Worst: Southeast GA (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

> Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.

Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

- Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low

- Current peak OPI: 335M lbs (week 26)

- Historical peak: 355M lbs

- Peak window: weeks 17–35 (Apr–Sep)

Active Import Windows

Source: USDA FAS annual reports

- Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh (IN PEAK)

- Chile: 87.0M lbs annually, 9% of US fresh

Chill Risk

Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

- Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set

- Regions at risk: Jalisco Mexico (1%, 0% fresh); San Quintín Mexico (10%, 0% fresh); Corning CA (76%, 4% fresh)

> Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

Season Pattern

Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted

- This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (75% similarity), when FOB data limited

- Key driver: early CA start

Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.

Top Movers by Market Impact

Watsonville, CA: 41d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 12d ahead — 58.1M lbs fresh (15.4% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 13d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 13d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)
Bladen County, NC: 2d behind — 40.2M lbs fresh (10.7% of domestic)

Overlap Pressure Index

Risk level: Low. Peak OPI: 335M lbs at week 26 (historical: 355M lbs).

Season Pattern

This season most resembles 2022 (75% similarity). FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.

Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

Disclaimer

This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.