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    Market Insights

    Weekly intelligence on harvest timing, supply overlap, and pricing pressure — plan labor, sales, and logistics before the market moves.

    Market Insights is new — and we're actively tuning.

    We're refining our models, adding regions, and improving the analysis every week. Your feedback helps us build something genuinely useful for growers and marketers. contact us or call us — we'd love to hear from you.

    Crop Alert — 3 high, 17 medium across 6 regions7-day forecast
    Prosser WA
    Heat — bees grounded · Bloom · Sat, May 23
    86.5°F
    Prosser WA
    Heat — bees grounded · Bloom · Mon, May 25
    87.8°F
    Central Florida
    Rain during ripening · Ripening · Fri, May 22
    0.5″
    Updated May 17 at 11:05 PM
    USA+
    Data as of May 21 06:03 AM UTC| Refresh in 29m

    Region Map

    TimingAheadOn TrackBehind
    Status:AheadOn TrackBehindFrost alert

    Early-season audio briefs are available in our archive

    AI-narrated weekly market timing updates from dormancy through bloom. Last updated Mar 30, 2026. Browse archive

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    Community Ground Truth

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    Blueberry Market Brief

    Overlap: Low
    Week 21
    Action Needed Monitor Context

    Top Movers

    Top Movers: Bakersfield, CA 28d ahead (5.4% of domestic fresh). OR 9d ahead (15.4% of domestic fresh). Watsonville, CA 29d ahead (4.6% of domestic fresh).
    Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

    Changes This Past Week

    Changes This Week: Bakersfield CA entered Ripening (was Fruit Set). Prosser WA shifted 5d falling behind this week.

    Week Ahead

    This Week: Central FL: +109 GDD this week (= avg) — on track. Bladen County NC: +91 GDD this week (-1 vs avg) — on track. Southeast GA: +104 GDD this week (-2 vs avg) — on track.

    Season Events

    Pollination Impact: 4 regions with High pollination risk this season. Worst: Hammonton NJ — 8 good bee-flight days during bloom (needs 10). 10.3% of domestic fresh supply.
    Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
    Frost Impact: 8 regions hit by frost this season. Southeast GA: frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) — 20.2% of domestic fresh supply; Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) — 5.8% of domestic fresh supply.
    Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
    Rain Impact: 7 regions hit by significant rain during Bloom. Worst: Corning CA: 4 rain days during Bloom (Apr 9-12, total 2.5″, peak 0.9″). 3.8% of domestic fresh supply.
    Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

    Market Context

    Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average. Peak projected weeks 17–34 (Apr–Aug).
    Import Context: Active import supply: Mexico 15% of US fresh.
    Chill Risk: Winter chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed or uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set. Corning CA (76% of target, 3.8% of domestic fresh supply). Dormancy ended — deficit locked in.
    Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
    A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →
    This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

    This Market Insights brief is copyrighted by innov8.ag

    How useful was this?

    Pin your region for personalized insights — tap the ☆ next to any region below to highlight it across all analyses.

    Region Overview

    Region
    Days ±
    Key Risk
    Central FL
    0don track
    Southeast GA
    0don track
    Bakersfield CA
    +28dahead
    Watsonville CA
    +29dahead
    Fresno CA
    +14dahead
    Bladen County NC
    0don track
    Corning CA
    +22dahead
    Willamette Valley OR
    +9dahead
    Hammonton NJ
    +5dahead
    SW (Van Buren) MI
    +9dahead
    Prosser WA
    +5dahead🐝 7.8h
    NW Washington WA
    +6dahead🐝 5.3h
    Traverse City MI
    +2dahead
    Peru import
    32% of US fresh
    Wk 32–8 (325.0M lbs)
    Mexico import
    15% of US fresh
    Wk 6–22 (150.0M lbs)
    Active
    Chile import
    9% of US fresh
    Wk 48–10 (87.0M lbs)

    Supply Overlap Heatmap

    Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

    1
    2
    3
    Jan
    5
    6
    7
    Feb
    9
    10
    11
    Mar
    13
    14
    15
    Apr
    17
    18
    19
    May
    21
    22
    23
    Jun
    25
    26
    27
    Jul
    29
    30
    31
    Aug
    33
    34
    35
    Sep
    37
    38
    39
    Oct
    41
    42
    43
    Nov
    45
    46
    47
    Dec
    49
    50
    51
    Dec
    Watsonville, CA
    Bakersfield, CA
    Central, FL
    Southeast, GA
    Corning, CA
    Bladen County, NC
    Willamette Valley, OR
    Hammonton, NJ
    SW (Van Buren), MI
    NW Washington, WA
    Prosser, WA
    Traverse City, MI
    Peru
    Mexico
    Chile
    Total OPI
    18
    17
    16
    16
    15
    20
    20
    20
    31
    52
    70
    70
    146
    146
    160
    160
    200
    200
    200
    199
    294
    293
    287
    267
    283
    335
    241
    241
    227
    227
    187
    193
    194
    195
    158
    159
    160
    161
    65
    54
    54
    54
    54
    13
    13
    13
    13
    17
    18
    19
    19
    18
    High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

    Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

    Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

    JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanCentral, FLSoutheast, GABladen County, NCBakersfield, CAFresno, CAWatsonville, CACorning, CAHammonton, NJSW (Van Buren), MITraverse City, MIWillamette Valley,…NW Washington, WAProsser, WAToday0d0d0d+28d+14d+29d+22d+5d+9d+2d+9d+6d+5d$10$20$30$/flatFLGACANJMIORWANC

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    On-farm ground truth

    Regional signals show market context — but decisions happen at the block level. FairPick and FairTrak connect real-time harvest data to piece-rate labor management, giving you the on-farm ground truth this dashboard can't.

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    Need supply/demand modeling, pricing scenarios, or help translating these signals into your harvest plan? Our agronomic team works directly with grower leadership.

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    Frost & Rain Events

    TypeRegionDatesDaysSeverity
    Rain
    Hammonton — NJMay 211
    Extreme
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMay 9-134
    High
    Rain
    Southeast — GAApr 29 – May 23
    Extreme
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMay 21
    Moderate
    Frost
    Traverse City — MIMay 21
    Moderate
    Rain
    Watsonville — CAApr 261
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bakersfield — CAApr 251
    Moderate
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 251
    Moderate
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 211
    High
    Rain
    Watsonville — CAApr 20-212
    Extreme
    Rain
    Corning — CAApr 20-212
    High
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJApr 211
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 201
    High
    Frost
    Prosser — WAApr 171
    Moderate
    Rain
    Bakersfield — CAApr 121
    Moderate
    Rain
    Fresno — CAApr 10-122
    Moderate
    Rain
    Watsonville — CAApr 10-123
    High
    Rain
    Corning — CAApr 9-124
    Extreme
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 111
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJApr 8-92
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIApr 6-83
    Extreme
    Frost
    Prosser — WAApr 31
    Moderate
    Rain
    Corning — CAMar 311
    Moderate
    Frost
    Prosser — WAMar 311
    High
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAMar 301
    High
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCMar 291
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 291
    High
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMar 27-282
    Extreme
    Frost
    Prosser — WAMar 26-272
    High
    Frost
    Willamette Valley — ORMar 261
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 241
    Moderate
    Frost
    SW (Van Buren) — MIMar 23-242
    Extreme
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAMar 231
    Moderate
    Frost
    Prosser — WAMar 221
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 17-193
    Extreme
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCMar 181
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 15-162
    Extreme
    Rain
    Southeast — GAMar 161
    Moderate
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCMar 131
    Moderate
    Frost
    Hammonton — NJMar 131
    High
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 121
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 81
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLMar 51
    Moderate
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAMar 1-22
    Moderate
    Rain
    Central — FLFeb 271
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLFeb 241
    Moderate
    Frost
    Southeast — GAFeb 241
    High
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCFeb 23-242
    High
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAFeb 241
    Moderate
    Frost
    Fresno — CAFeb 211
    Moderate
    Frost
    Corning — CAFeb 201
    High
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAFeb 19-202
    High
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAFeb 151
    Moderate
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCJan 24 – Feb 1420
    Extreme
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAFeb 11-122
    Moderate
    Frost
    Southeast — GAFeb 61
    Moderate
    Frost
    NW Washington — WAFeb 61
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 27 – Feb 37
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 27 – Feb 38
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 19-213
    Moderate
    Frost
    Bladen County — NCJan 12-218
    Extreme
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 191
    Moderate
    Frost
    Central — FLJan 161
    High
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 161
    Extreme
    Frost
    Southeast — GAJan 12-132
    Moderate

    GDD Accumulation

    Central — FL

    Emerald, Jewel

    FAWN Alachua

    0dvs 10-yr avg
    Rain — RipeningFri, May 22 · 0.5″
    Heat — RipeningThu, May 21 · 97.7°F

    +7 more alerts

    Updated May 15 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 1,543Avg: 1,601-584 frost clusters (10d)5 rain clusters (6d)
    Compare:
    JanApr040080012001600

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Southeast — GA

    Star, Farthing

    GAEMN

    0dvs 10-yr avg
    Heat — RipeningMon, May 25 · 97.2°F
    Heat — RipeningTue, May 26 · 95.5°F

    Updated May 19 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 1,315Avg: 1,382-676 frost clusters (16d)3 rain clusters (8d)
    Compare:
    JanApr035070010501400

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Bladen County — NC

    Star, Farthing

    ECONet Whiteville

    0dvs 10-yr avg
    GDD: 993Avg: 1,000-76 frost clusters (33d)
    Compare:
    JanApr02505007501000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Bakersfield — CA

    Emerald

    CIMIS Bakersfield

    +28dahead of 10-yr avg
    Heat — RipeningThu, May 28 · 98.8°F

    Updated May 21 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 1,423Avg: 961+4622 rain clusters (2d)
    Compare:
    JanApr035070010501400

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Fresno — CA

    Emerald, Jewel

    CIMIS Parlier

    +14dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 1,175Avg: 928+247Frost: 32F on Feb 21 (Moderate)3 rain clusters (4d)
    Compare:
    JanApr03006009001200

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Watsonville — CA

    Emerald, Draper

    CIMIS Watsonville

    +29dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 880Avg: 655+2253 rain clusters (6d)
    Compare:
    JanApr02505007501000

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Corning — CA

    Draper, Aurora

    CIMIS Durham

    +22dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 1,090Avg: 776+314Frost: 28F on Feb 20 (High)3 rain clusters (7d)
    Compare:
    JanApr03006009001200

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Hammonton — NJ

    Duke, Bluecrop

    NJWxNet

    +5dahead of 10-yr avg
    Rain — BloomThu, May 21 · 0.1″
    Cold — BloomSat, May 23 · 51.4°F

    +3 more alerts

    Updated May 15 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 504Avg: 441+636 frost clusters (9d)Rain: 39mm on May 21
    Compare:
    JanApr0150300450600

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    SW (Van Buren) — MI

    Bluecrop, Elliott

    EnviroWeather

    +9dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 326Avg: 236+906 frost clusters (10d)
    Compare:
    JanApr080160240320

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Traverse City — MI

    Bluecrop, Jersey

    EnviroWeather

    +2dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 147Avg: 135+12Frost: 32F on May 2 (Moderate)
    Compare:
    JanApr04080120160

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Willamette Valley — OR

    Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott

    AgriMet Corvallis

    +9dahead of 10-yr avg
    Rain — BloomTue, May 26 · 0.1″

    Updated May 20 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 371Avg: 310+61Frost: 29F on Mar 26 (Moderate)
    Compare:
    JanApr095190285380

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    NW Washington — WA

    Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call

    AWN Mt Vernon

    +6dahead of 10-yr avg
    GDD: 274Avg: 251+238 frost clusters (11d)
    🐝 5.3h/d🌡 Soil 58°F💧 RH 79%
    Compare:
    JanApr070140210280

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Prosser — WA

    Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call

    AWN Prosser

    +5dahead of 10-yr avg
    Heat — BloomSat, May 23 · 86.5°F
    Heat — BloomMon, May 25 · 87.8°F

    Updated May 18 at 6:05 AM UTC

    GDD: 376Avg: 350+265 frost clusters (6d)
    🐝 7.8h/d🌡 Soil 76°F💧 RH 49%
    Compare:
    JanApr095190285380

    GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

    Chill Accumulation

    Central — FL

    Simple Chill Hours309 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units-315 / 275

    -115%

    Southeast — GA

    Simple Chill Hours568 / 400

    100%

    Utah Model Units250 / 440

    57%

    Bladen County — NC

    Simple Chill Hours967 / 400

    100%

    Utah Model Units653 / 440

    100%

    Bakersfield — CA

    Simple Chill Hours545 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units741 / 275

    100%

    Fresno — CA

    Simple Chill Hours842 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,108 / 275

    100%

    Watsonville — CA

    Simple Chill Hours285 / 250

    100%

    Utah Model Units632 / 275

    100%

    Corning — CA

    Simple Chill Hours761 / 1,000

    76%

    Utah Model Units1,209 / 1,100

    100%

    Medium Risk
    Insufficient chill may delay bloom and reduce fruit set

    Hammonton — NJ

    Simple Chill Hours2,277 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,072 / 1,100

    97%

    SW (Van Buren) — MI

    Simple Chill Hours3,008 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,002 / 1,100

    91%

    Traverse City — MI

    Simple Chill Hours3,371 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units910 / 1,100

    83%

    Willamette Valley — OR

    Simple Chill Hours1,676 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,977 / 1,100

    100%

    NW Washington — WA

    Simple Chill Hours2,574 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units2,783 / 1,100

    100%

    Prosser — WA

    Simple Chill Hours2,111 / 1,000

    100%

    Utah Model Units1,772 / 1,100

    100%

    Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 21

    Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 21

    Highlights

    - Frost hit Central FL (Ripening), Southeast GA (Fruit Set), Bladen County NC (Fruit Set), Corning CA (Fruit Set), Hammonton NJ (Bloom), SW (Van Buren) MI (Bud Break), NW Washington WA (Bud Break)

    - Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (76%)

    - Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Central FL, Southeast GA, Fresno CA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA, Hammonton NJ

    - Watsonville CA running 54d ahead of average

    Top Movers by Market Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

    - Watsonville, CA: 54d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

    - Willamette Valley, OR: 13d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)

    - Bakersfield, CA: 22d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

    - Corning, CA: 20d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)

    - SW (Van Buren), MI: 6d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)

    > Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

    Changes Since Last Week

    - Prosser WA shifted 6d falling behind this week

    This Week

    - Central FL: +109 GDD this week — 3d behind

    - Southeast GA: +104 GDD this week — 2d behind

    - Bladen County NC: +91 GDD this week — 2d behind

    - Bakersfield CA: +83 GDD this week — 22d ahead

    - Watsonville CA: +51 GDD this week — 54d ahead

    Frost Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

    - 2 regions hit by frost this season

    - Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

    - Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)

    > Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

    Pollination Impact

    Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model

    - 1 region with Medium pollination risk this season

    - Worst: Hammonton NJ (10.3% of domestic fresh supply)

    > Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.

    Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

    The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

    Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

    - Supply overlap trending 11% below historical average — Risk: Low

    - Current peak OPI: 317M lbs (week 26)

    - Historical peak: 355M lbs

    - Peak window: weeks 15–38 (Apr–Sep)

    Active Import Windows

    Source: USDA FAS annual reports

    - Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh

    Chill Risk

    Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

    - Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set

    - Regions at risk: San Quintín Mexico (10%, 0% fresh); Fresno CA (0%); Corning CA (76%, 4% fresh)

    > Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

    Season Pattern

    Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted

    - This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (51% similarity), when FOB data limited

    - Key driver: early CA start


    Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

    Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.

    Top Movers by Market Impact

    • Watsonville, CA: 54d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
    • Willamette Valley, OR: 13d ahead — 58.1M lbs fresh (15.4% of domestic)
    • Bakersfield, CA: 22d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
    • Corning, CA: 20d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)
    • SW (Van Buren), MI: 6d ahead — 38.0M lbs fresh (10.1% of domestic)

    Overlap Pressure Index

    Risk level: Low. Peak OPI: 317M lbs at week 26 (historical: 355M lbs).

    Season Pattern

    This season most resembles 2025 (51% similarity). FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.

    Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

    Disclaimer

    This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.