Frost hit Central FL (Fruit Set), Southeast GA (Fruit Set), Bladen County NC (Bloom), Corning CA (Bloom), Hammonton NJ (Bud Break)
Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (76%)
Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Central FL, Southeast GA
Watsonville CA running 58d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 58d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 14d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)
NW Washington, WA: 38d ahead (17M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 30d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
SW (Van Buren), MI: 13d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Southeast GA: entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)
Bladen County NC: entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
Bakersfield CA: entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)
Watsonville CA: entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)
Hammonton NJ: entered Bud Break (was Dormant)
Central FL: +93 GDD this week — 1d behind
Southeast GA: +83 GDD this week — 1d behind
Bladen County NC: +83 GDD this week — on track
Bakersfield CA: +67 GDD this week — 30d ahead
Watsonville CA: +52 GDD this week — 58d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
2 regions hit by frost this season
Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model
2 regions with Medium pollination risk this season
Worst: Bladen County NC (10.7% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 10% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 320M lbs (week 24)
Historical peak: 355M lbs
Peak window: weeks 17–37 (Apr–Sep)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh (IN PEAK)
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$20 $/flat 12 1-pt during peak weeks 17–37
2022: ~$22 (+10% vs avg)
2023: ~$18 (-10% vs avg)
2024: ~$20
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Jalisco Mexico** (1%, 0% fresh); **San Quintín Mexico** (10%, 0% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%); **Corning CA** (76%, 4% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (61% similarity), when FOB +10% vs avg
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Chill deficit: Hollister CA (52%), Fresno CA (0%)
Rain damage: Stockton CA
Hollister CA running 30d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Hollister, CA: 30d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
Wenatchee, WA: 13d ahead (115M lbs fresh, 20% of domestic)
Yakima, WA: 18d ahead (82M lbs fresh, 14% of domestic)
Stockton, CA: 12d ahead (108M lbs fresh, 19% of domestic)
The Dalles, OR: 13d ahead (73M lbs fresh, 13% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Stockton CA: entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)
Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA: shifted 5d further ahead this week
Stockton CA: +61 GDD this week — 12d ahead
Hollister CA: +69 GDD this week — 30d ahead
The Dalles OR: +28 GDD this week — 13d ahead
Yakima WA: +37 GDD this week — 18d ahead
Columbia Basin WA: +45 GDD this week — 10d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
2 regions hit by frost this season
Stockton CA: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 20-21, low 29°F) (18.5% of domestic fresh supply)
Hollister CA: Moderate frost at Bud Break (32°F on Feb 21) (12.4% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 549M lbs (week 22)
Historical peak: 582M lbs
Peak window: weeks 21–30 (May–Jul)
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$47 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 21–30
2023: ~$45
2024: ~$47
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Hollister CA** (52%, 12% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%)
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (58% similarity), when FOB data limited
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.