Frost hit Central FL (Bud Break), Southeast GA (Bud Break), Bladen County NC (Dormant)
Chill deficit: La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru (0%), Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru (0%), Jalisco Mexico (1%), San Quintín Mexico (10%), Corning CA (76%)
Rain damage: La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru, Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru
Watsonville CA running 27d ahead of average
Central FL: +56 GDD this week — 6d behind
Southeast GA: +53 GDD this week — 1d behind
Bladen County NC: +35 GDD this week — 8d behind
Bakersfield CA: +26 GDD this week — 6d ahead
Watsonville CA: +19 GDD this week — 27d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 27d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Bladen County, NC: 8d behind (40M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)
Central, FL: 6d behind (22M lbs fresh, 6% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 6d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Southeast, GA: 1d behind (84M lbs fresh, 22% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending at historical average — Risk: Medium
Current peak OPI: 365M lbs (week 26)
Historical peak: 365M lbs
Peak window: weeks 18–35 (May–Sep)
Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Peru, Mexico, Chile currently supplying US fresh market — maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of domestic season
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
3 regions hit by frost this season
Central FL: 6 frost days during Bud Break (Jan 27 – Feb 3, low 22°F) (5.6% of domestic fresh)
Southeast GA: Extreme frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) (21.8% of domestic fresh)
Bladen County NC: High frost at Dormant (27°F on Feb 24) (10.4% of domestic fresh)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Insufficient chill accumulation: **La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru** (0%, 0% fresh), **Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru** (0%, 0% fresh), **Jalisco Mexico** (1%, 0% fresh), **San Quintín Mexico** (10%, 0% fresh), **Corning CA** (76%, 4% fresh)
May delay or reduce bloom quality
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
2 regions hit by significant rain
Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru: 2 rain days during Ripening (Feb 23-24, total 115mm (5in), peak 71mm (3in)) (0.0% of domestic fresh)
La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru: 2 rain days during Ripening (Jan 15-16, total 14mm (1in), peak 9mm (0in)) (0.0% of domestic fresh)
Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Frost hit O'Higgins Chile (Ripening)
Chill deficit: Stockton CA (80%), Hollister CA (46%), O'Higgins Chile (0%)
Rain damage: O'Higgins Chile
Stockton CA: +34 GDD this week — 5d ahead
Hollister CA: +36 GDD this week — 9d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Hollister, CA: 9d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
Stockton, CA: 5d ahead (108M lbs fresh, 19% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 7% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 557M lbs (week 22)
Historical peak: 597M lbs
Peak window: weeks 22–30 (Jun–Jul)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Chile currently supplying US fresh market — maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of domestic season
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$47 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 22–30
2023: ~$45
2024: ~$47
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
O'Higgins Chile: Extreme frost at Bud Break (21°F on Aug 23) (0.0% of domestic fresh)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Insufficient chill accumulation: **Stockton CA** (80%, 19% fresh), **Hollister CA** (46%, 12% fresh), **O'Higgins Chile** (0%, 0% fresh)
May delay or reduce bloom quality
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
1 region hit by significant rain
O'Higgins Chile: 2 rain days during Bloom (Sep 20-21, total 99mm (4in), peak 87mm (3in)) (0.0% of domestic fresh)
Action: Pre-stage helicopter or air-blast fans. Consider early harvest of susceptible varieties (Bing, Rainier) before rain event.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.