Frost hit Central FL (Ripening), Southeast GA (Fruit Set), Bladen County NC (Fruit Set), Corning CA (Fruit Set), Hammonton NJ (Bloom), SW (Van Buren) MI (Bud Break), NW Washington WA (Bud Break)
Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (76%)
Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Central FL, Southeast GA, Fresno CA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA, Hammonton NJ
Watsonville CA running 54d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 54d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 13d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 22d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 20d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)
SW (Van Buren), MI: 6d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Prosser WA: shifted 6d falling behind this week
Central FL: +109 GDD this week — 3d behind
Southeast GA: +104 GDD this week — 2d behind
Bladen County NC: +91 GDD this week — 2d behind
Bakersfield CA: +83 GDD this week — 22d ahead
Watsonville CA: +51 GDD this week — 54d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
2 regions hit by frost this season
Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model
1 region with Medium pollination risk this season
Worst: Hammonton NJ (10.3% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 11% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 317M lbs (week 26)
Historical peak: 355M lbs
Peak window: weeks 15–38 (Apr–Sep)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **San Quintín Mexico** (10%, 0% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%); **Corning CA** (76%, 4% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (51% similarity), when FOB data limited
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Frost hit Yakima WA (Bloom), Chelan WA (Bud Break), Kelowna BC (Bud Break), Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA (Bloom), Okanagan (Oliver/Osoyoos) BC (Bloom)
Chill deficit: Hollister CA (52%), Fresno CA (0%)
Rain damage: Stockton CA, Hollister CA, Fresno CA, Columbia Basin WA
Hollister CA running 25d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Wenatchee, WA: 16d ahead (115M lbs fresh, 20% of domestic)
Hollister, CA: 25d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
Yakima, WA: 14d ahead (82M lbs fresh, 14% of domestic)
The Dalles, OR: 13d ahead (73M lbs fresh, 13% of domestic)
Chelan, WA: 12d ahead (66M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Hollister CA: entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)
Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA: entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
Stockton CA: +79 GDD this week — 5d ahead
Hollister CA: +77 GDD this week — 25d ahead
The Dalles OR: +46 GDD this week — 13d ahead
Yakima WA: +57 GDD this week — 14d ahead
Columbia Basin WA: +70 GDD this week — 11d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Apr 25-26, low 28°F) (5.7% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model
1 region with Medium pollination risk this season
Worst: Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA (5.7% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 566M lbs (week 21)
Historical peak: 599M lbs
Peak window: weeks 20–29 (May–Jul)
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$47 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 20–29
2023: ~$45
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Hollister CA** (52%, 12% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%)
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.