Frost hit SW (Van Buren) MI (Ripening), NW Washington WA (Ripening)
Rain damage: La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru, Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru, SW (Van Buren) MI, Traverse City MI, NW Washington WA, Prosser WA, Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC
Watsonville CA running 60d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 60d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 34d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
SW (Van Buren), MI: 16d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)
Bladen County, NC: 11d ahead (40M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 28d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
NW Washington WA: entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)
Central FL: +115 GDD this week — on track
Southeast GA: +99 GDD this week — 4d ahead
Bladen County NC: +83 GDD this week — 11d ahead
Bakersfield CA: +124 GDD this week — 34d ahead
Watsonville CA: +73 GDD this week — 60d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
SW (Van Buren) MI: Moderate frost at Bud Break (31°F on May 2) (10.1% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
6 regions hit by significant rain
SW (Van Buren) MI: 4 rain days during Ripening (Sep 15-20, total 2.9″, peak 1.1″) (10.1% of domestic fresh supply)
Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru: 3 rain days during Ripening (Feb 23-25, total 2.9″, peak 1.6″) (import — 32% of US fresh)
Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC: 3 rain days during Ripening (Sep 24-26, total 1.6″, peak 0.9″) (import)
Traverse City MI: 2 rain days during Ripening (Sep 30 – Oct 1, total 0.6″, peak 0.3″) (3.0% of domestic fresh supply)
La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru: 2 rain days during Ripening (Jan 15-16, total 0.5″, peak 0.3″) (import — 32% of US fresh)
Prosser WA: 0.4″ on Sep 12 at Ripening (6.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 33% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 236M lbs (week 21)
Historical peak: 355M lbs
Peak window: weeks 12–44 (Mar–Nov)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Peru: 325.0M lbs annually, 32% of US fresh (IN PEAK)
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$18 $/flat 12 1-pt during peak weeks 12–44
2022: ~$20 (+11% vs avg)
2023: ~$18
2024: ~$18
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **La Libertad (Trujillo) Peru** (0%, 0% fresh); **Lambayeque (Olmos) Peru** (0%, 0% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Frost hit O'Higgins Chile (Ripening)
Rain damage: O'Higgins Chile
Wenatchee WA running 60d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Wenatchee, WA: 60d ahead (115M lbs fresh, 20% of domestic)
Hollister, CA: 26d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
Stockton, CA: 11d behind (108M lbs fresh, 19% of domestic)
Yakima, WA: 12d ahead (82M lbs fresh, 14% of domestic)
Quincy, WA: 24d ahead (17M lbs fresh, 3% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Stockton CA: +114 GDD this week — 11d behind
Hollister CA: +118 GDD this week — 26d ahead
The Dalles OR: +79 GDD this week — 5d ahead
Yakima WA: +78 GDD this week — 12d ahead
Columbia Basin WA: +87 GDD this week — 3d behind
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
O'Higgins Chile: Extreme frost at Bud Break (21°F on Aug 23) (import — 3% of US fresh)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
1 region hit by significant rain
O'Higgins Chile: 9 rain days during Ripening (Jul 16-28, total 10.4″, peak 3.3″) (import — 3% of US fresh)
Action: Pre-stage helicopter or air-blast fans. Consider early harvest of susceptible varieties (Bing, Rainier) before rain event.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 566M lbs (week 22)
Historical peak: 599M lbs
Peak window: weeks 19–29 (May–Jul)
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$47 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 19–29
2023: ~$45
2024: ~$47
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **O'Higgins Chile** (86%, 0% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.