Frost hit Southeast GA (Ripening), Bladen County NC (Ripening), Corning CA (Ripening), Hammonton NJ (Fruit Set), SW (Van Buren) MI (Fruit Set), NW Washington WA (Fruit Set)
Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (75%)
Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Southeast GA, Fresno CA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA, Hammonton NJ, SW (Van Buren) MI, Traverse City MI, NW Washington WA, Prosser WA, Abbotsford/Fraser Valley BC
Watsonville CA running 49d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 49d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 8d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 16d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 17d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)
NW Washington, WA: 9d ahead (17M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Corning CA: entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)
Traverse City MI: entered Fruit Set (was Bloom)
Central FL: +127 GDD this week — 2d behind
Southeast GA: +126 GDD this week — 2d behind
Bladen County NC: +123 GDD this week — 1d ahead
Bakersfield CA: +100 GDD this week — 16d ahead
Watsonville CA: +46 GDD this week — 49d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
1 region hit by significant rain
Southeast GA: 7 rain days during Ripening (Jun 14-22, total 4.7″, peak 2.1″) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 1% above historical average — Risk: Medium
Current peak OPI: 359M lbs (week 26)
Historical peak: 355M lbs
Peak window: weeks 20–34 (May–Aug)
Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **San Quintín Mexico** (9%, 0% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%); **Corning CA** (75%, 4% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (52% similarity), when FOB data limited
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Frost hit Yakima WA (Fruit Set), Chelan WA (Fruit Set), Kelowna BC (Fruit Set), Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA (Fruit Set), Okanagan (Oliver/Osoyoos) BC (Fruit Set)
Chill deficit: Hollister CA (52%), Fresno CA (0%)
Rain damage: Stockton CA, Hollister CA, Fresno CA, Columbia Basin WA, Quincy WA, Wenatchee WA, Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA
Hollister CA running 21d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Hollister, CA: 21d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
Wenatchee, WA: 13d ahead (115M lbs fresh, 20% of domestic)
Yakima, WA: 10d ahead (82M lbs fresh, 14% of domestic)
The Dalles, OR: 9d ahead (73M lbs fresh, 13% of domestic)
Chelan, WA: 8d ahead (66M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Columbia Basin WA: entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)
Stockton CA: +93 GDD this week — on track
Hollister CA: +76 GDD this week — 21d ahead
The Dalles OR: +75 GDD this week — 9d ahead
Yakima WA: +96 GDD this week — 10d ahead
Columbia Basin WA: +106 GDD this week — 6d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
1 region hit by frost this season
Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Apr 25-26, low 28°F) (5.7% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
1 region hit by significant rain
Hollister CA: 0.5″ on May 28 at Ripening (12.4% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Pre-stage helicopter or air-blast fans. Consider early harvest of susceptible varieties (Bing, Rainier) before rain event.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending at historical average — Risk: Medium
Current peak OPI: 599M lbs (week 25)
Historical peak: 599M lbs
Peak window: weeks 20–30 (May–Jul)
Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$43 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 20–30
2022: ~$49 (+14% vs avg)
2023: ~$39 (-9% vs avg)
2024: ~$47 (+9% vs avg)
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Hollister CA** (52%, 12% fresh); **Fresno CA** (0%)
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.