Frost hit Central FL (Bloom), Southeast GA (Bloom), Bladen County NC (Bud Break)
Pollination risk: Southeast GA (High), Watsonville CA (High)
Chill deficit: Jalisco Mexico (1%), San Quintín Mexico (10%), Corning CA (76%)
Watsonville CA running 41d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Watsonville, CA: 41d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 12d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 13d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 13d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)
Bladen County, NC: 2d behind (40M lbs fresh, 11% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Southeast GA: entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
Bladen County NC: entered Bud Break (was Dormant)
Watsonville CA: entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
Watsonville CA: shifted 5d further ahead this week
Corning CA: shifted 5d further ahead this week
Central FL: +98 GDD this week — 3d behind
Southeast GA: +89 GDD this week — 1d behind
Bladen County NC: +79 GDD this week — 2d behind
Bakersfield CA: +48 GDD this week — 13d ahead
Watsonville CA: +43 GDD this week — 41d ahead
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
3 regions hit by frost this season
Central FL: 3 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-3, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)
Southeast GA: Extreme frost at Dormant (19°F on Jan 16) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Bladen County NC: High frost at Dormant (27°F on Feb 24) (10.7% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model
2 regions with High pollination risk this season
Worst: Southeast GA (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 335M lbs (week 26)
Historical peak: 355M lbs
Peak window: weeks 17–35 (Apr–Sep)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh (IN PEAK)
Chile: 87.0M lbs annually, 9% of US fresh
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Jalisco Mexico** (1%, 0% fresh); **San Quintín Mexico** (10%, 0% fresh); **Corning CA** (76%, 4% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (75% similarity), when FOB data limited
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Chill deficit: Stockton CA (80%), Hollister CA (46%), Wenatchee WA (0%), Chelan WA (0%), Kelowna BC (0%), Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA (0%), Okanagan (Oliver/Osoyoos) BC (0%)
Columbia Basin WA running 18d ahead of average
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
Wenatchee, WA: 16d ahead (115M lbs fresh, 20% of domestic)
Stockton, CA: 12d ahead (108M lbs fresh, 19% of domestic)
Hollister, CA: 17d ahead (72M lbs fresh, 12% of domestic)
The Dalles, OR: 15d ahead (73M lbs fresh, 13% of domestic)
Columbia Basin, WA: 18d ahead (33M lbs fresh, 6% of domestic)
Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Stockton CA: entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
The Dalles OR: shifted 5d further ahead this week
Yakima WA: shifted 6d further ahead this week
Columbia Basin WA: shifted 5d further ahead this week
Wenatchee WA: shifted 6d further ahead this week
Stockton CA: +66 GDD this week — 12d ahead
Hollister CA: +63 GDD this week — 17d ahead
The Dalles OR: +36 GDD this week — 15d ahead
Yakima WA: +32 GDD this week — on track
Columbia Basin WA: +39 GDD this week — 18d ahead
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh cherries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
Supply overlap trending 6% below historical average — Risk: Low
Current peak OPI: 549M lbs (week 22)
Historical peak: 582M lbs
Peak window: weeks 19–30 (May–Jul)
Source: USDA FAS annual reports
Chile currently supplying US fresh market — maintaining year-round retail availability ahead of domestic season
Source: USDA AMS FOB shipping-point reports (3-yr avg)
Historical avg (USDA AMS): ~$47 $/20-lb carton during peak weeks 19–30
2023: ~$45
2024: ~$47
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
Regions at risk: **Stockton CA** (80%, 19% fresh); **Hollister CA** (46%, 12% fresh); **Wenatchee WA** (0%, 20% fresh); **Chelan WA** (0%, 11% fresh); **Kelowna BC** (0%, 0% fresh); **Okanogan (Oroville/Tonasket) WA** (0%, 6% fresh); **Okanagan (Oliver/Osoyoos) BC** (0%, 0% fresh)
Action: Low chill may cause uneven bloom and delayed leaf-out. Budget for additional hand-thinning to compensate for irregular fruit set.
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (67% similarity), when FOB data limited
Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2024. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.